Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Some thoughts about that Mexican presidential election


It was a good night to sit down and watch a presidential debate.   Frankly, it's hard to have a debate with 4 candidates.  I also found the format a bit confusing.   Nevertheless, it was my first opportunity to watch the four people who want to lead Mexico.


My impression is that nothing changed.  We are headed to a Pena-Nieto presidency unless the voters pull a late minute rally.   I agree with RC Archibold that it lacked "fire" and no one really laid a punch on Sr Pena-Nieto.


I am not saying that Sr Pena-Nieto is my candidate but he will win a plurality of the vote.  At this point, the "clock" is Sr Pena-Nieto's best friend and he intends to run it out.  He is trying to persuade a skeptical electorate that the "nuevo PRI" is not the "viejo PRI".


What about Sr LO? Is there anyone in Mexico who thinks that Sr LO's leftist ideas will make the country more attractive to the kind of foreign investment that a growing economy needs? 


On the contrary, a LO presidency will send "panic alarms" ringing in the financial markets!  It will drive more international investment from Mexico to Chile, South Korea or Colombia.  It will be the biggest blow to Mexican financial credibility since Pres Lopez-Portillo expropriated private banks and showed the world how arbitrary "the rule of law" can be in Mexico. 


Last, but not least, there is Sra Josefina Vazquez and Sr Gabriel Quadri. 

She seems like a nice lady but her "mental exercise" about imagining 4 women on some debate stage was silly beyond silly.   Sorry but pandering for the female vote was unnecessary.  Mexico does not have a "man" problem.  Mexico has structural problems such as PEMEX, outdated labor laws and an inefficient agricultural sector that drives young men to cut grass in Dallas.


Gabriel Quadri is the newcomer who fills that eternal yearning in the electorate to find the "non politician".    Unfortunately, those candidates usually end up failing because politics is about governing not daydreaming.


Sr Quadri gets my vote for "comic relief" and persistence.   He kept asking for the others to say something about "same sex marriage" but everyone was just too darn confused keeping up with Sr LO's bizarre "jobs" arithmetic. 


We wish our Mexican friends the best on election day.  Let's hope that the next president will serve the nation's interests and works with Pres Romney to address the border mess.  Check out our Tuesday show: 


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