Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Mr. Trump: Check out Bush ’04 and Abbott ’14 and Hispanic support

The latest polls confirm that Mr. Trump is in a big hole with Hispanic voters: 77% unfavorable.
I saw some of this a few weeks ago at a social gathering. We went to a birthday party and everyone there had voted for Romney but one. In other words, Romney beat Obama 9-1 at that table. My friends were Hispanic professionals and most were naturalized citizens like me. Trump will not win 9-1 with those Hispanics. They are furious with Trump and my friends do not support amnesty.
Maybe it’s time for the Trump people to look at two winning electoral strategies: Bush 2004 and Abbott 2014 in Texas.
In 2004, President Bush was reelected with 51% of the popular vote and 286 electoral votes.
Bush did well with men, religious people, and married women. He won the white vote 58-41%.
Believe it or not, Romney did about the same in 2012: Romney got 59% of the white vote!
So why did Bush get 51% and Romney 48% of the popular vote? The answer is Hispanics: 44% of the Hispanic vote for Bush vs high 20s for Romney.
Down in Texas, Abbott won a landslide for governor in 2014:
Some exit polls also showed GOP governor-elect Greg Abbott winning 44 percent of the Latino vote, a higher percentage than the 38 percent Republican Gov. Rick Perry won in 2010.
I should add that Governor Perry was never seen as anti-Hispanic. Also, Ms. Davis turned off a lot of Hispanic women over abortion.
Mr. Abbott adopted the attitude that the GOP would ask Hispanics for their vote. He spoke about crime on the border but did not single out Mexicans or used the words rapists or criminals. He addressed the violence as a national security issue and was more critical of the Obama administration than people coming over.
Finally, President Bush or Governor Abbott did not call for open borders or amnesty.
The Trump people keep telling me that demographics do not matter. It’s “old school”, as a Trump supporter told me.
But demographics matter and it’s up to the Trump team to see the Hispanic challenge that he faces today.
In 2012, President Obama got 5 million votes more than Governor Romney. Do the Trump people really think that they are going to convert Democrats or bring in new voters and have it add up to 5 million?
The good news is that Mr. Trump has time. He will find an audience among Hispanics who care a lot more about the economy than immigration. But, Mr. Trump has to get started and I don’t mean naming a Latina as VP. He should speak to Hispanics about jobs and the lousy public schools that their kids go to.
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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The Hispanic vote in 2016 with Israel Ortega

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