Monday, February 02, 2015

Another Brokered GOP Convention?

(MY NEW AMERICAN THINKER POST)


On this day in 1968, former VP Nixon announced that he was a candidate for president. It came at the start of the the Tet Offensive, the battle that we won but the media reported we didn't.

On this day in 2015, we get another article about a "brokered convention". It didn't happen in 2008 or 2012 and it won't in 2016 but it is a heck of story for those of us who sleep and eat politics.

According to Sean Trende, a very good pundit, the GOP field is so deep that it could happen:
"I think the Republican Party really could wind up with a brokered convention -- that is, a race where no candidate receives a majority of the delegates by the end of voting.
In fact, it might well be the most likely outcome, if only because no particular outcome is particularly probable."
It could happen but I don't see it.

First, a brokered convention will not unite the party. It will get ugly on the floor, a bit like the Reagan-Ford struggle of 1976. Yes, President Ford won but a lot of the Reagan people took off the fall and did not work hard for him.

Second, who is going to unite all of these splintered groups anyway? My guess is that a "brokered convention" will turn into an establishment vs Tea Party shouting match. It may be fun for bloggers and reporters but it will hurt whoever gets the nomination.

Yes, a "brokered convention" could happen and it would be historic. I'm hoping that it doesn't because the nominee will be bleeding before the general campaign.Finally, one of these guys, and my money is on Gov. Scott Walker today, will break out and start winning delegates. He will eventually drive candidates out of the race because the money will dry up.


One last thought: I do think that a "brokered convention" is likely on the Democrat side if Hillary Clinton does not run. The nomination would probably go to VP Biden but there are going to be a lot of gloomy faces at the convention.

P.S. You can hear my show: CantoTalk  or  follow me on Twitter  .    We discussed the 2016 campaign on Sunday's show:


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