Thursday, March 17, 2016

Donald, Ted, and John

Uncertainty and the unpredictable are the only things certain and predictable about this political season. How many of you predicted that Trump would lead the delegate field in mid-March? I didn’t. In fact, I didn’t anyone would take Trump seriously.
So throw out the flight plan, turn off the autopilot and land this plane on its own.   
Am I the only person in the planet who thinks that Kasich has a chance to be the GOP nominee?
The talking heads were a bit Trumpish last night. Ed Rollins wrote that it’s down to only Trump and Cruz. My favorite Dr. Krauthammer said the same thing. Most of them told us that it was a huge night for Trump. They didn’t give Cruz credit for fighting Trump in North Carolina and Missouri.   
I agree that Trump won Florida and picked up a bunch of delegates. However, he is still has a long way to go. Once again, 50-60% of GOP voters voted for someone else. GOP concern for Trump was all over those numbers that we saw last night.
First, Trump has about 650 delegates on the way to 1,237. There are about 500 winner-take-all delegates on the wall.   He would need most of these to assure a first ballot nomination. He can do it but probably won’t.
Second, the primaries go west, where Cruz should do well in places like Arizona, and east, such as New York and Pennsylvania, where Kasich should do better. My good guess is that these 3 guys will score victories in different states pushing everything to a contested convention.
Third, Kasich will be the favorite of two important groups of voters: the anti-Trump voters and those who feel that Cruz cannot win a general election.
Fourth, Kasich is now the elect-ability favorite. He is plus seven over Clinton in the RCP average. As governor of Ohio, he looks to me like the one person who appeals to the broadest base of voters.
My friend Barry Casselman told me last night that this GOP campaign will go on for a while. The GOP nominee will be Donald, Ted, or John.  
It won’t be decided in the primaries, as nominations have been won for most of our life. It will happen when delegates vote in Cleveland, or the way that we used to do it.    
I believe that delegates will come to the conclusion that Kasich is the best one to beat the Democrats.
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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