Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Wednesday's show: Lopez-Obrador moving up in Mexico, Brazil chaos and the Roseanne controversy

We look at the Roseanne Barr controversy or a lot of nothing about nothing.......New poll shows Lopez-Obrador leading by big margin.......Brazilians call for military takeover.......Lincoln Memorial 1922.....Indianapolis 500 started 1911......Mickey Mantle longest HR in 1956.......and others stories.....

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Wednesday's video: The Roseanne scandal is much about nothing

Upcoming elections in Colombia and Mexico

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By July 15, we will know who will be the next presidents of Mexico and Colombia.  Americans usually don’t care about these elections, but 2018 may be one of those years when results matter in two of the largest GDPs in Latin America.
Let’s go to Colombia.
With 98 percent of the votes counted, conservative 41-year-old Iván Duque nailed down 39 percent of the vote, according to Colombia’s national electoral agency. 
He was followed by the progressive 58-year-old economist and ex-mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo Petro, with 25 percent.
Duque is in a strong position for round 2, but 36%, the ones who did not vote for #1 or #2, will now have to choose between the two finalists.
I am not familiar with the other candidates and whom they will endorse.
Nevertheless, this is now down to Duque and Petro.  The big question is this: which one can persuade a majority of Colombians?
Stay tuned, but I like Duque’s chances.
Down in Mexico, conventional wisdom was that leftist Andrés López-Obrador was going to win.  He may, but don’t bet on that “caballo,” or horse, just yet.
A couple of weeks ago, a Mexican friend explained what he called “Plan B,” an effort for voters to vote for whoever is #2 or rising in the polls.  According to my friend, Mexican voters are planning to wait until the last moment to cast their ballots, when they have a good sense of who is #2.  It is their hope that #2 gets the support of #3 and #4 and overthrow López-Obrador.
“Plan B” may be a Mexican dream, but it appears to be working.  “Número 2,” Ricardo Anaya, a right-center candidate, is gaining and closing the gap against López-Obrador.  The latest polls show that the lead is narrowing:
Less than two months before Mexicans vote, Lopez Obrador’s support grew to 39 percent from 38 percent in the previous poll at the end of March, according to polling firm Parametria, but his lead narrowed to 14 points from 18.
The possibility of a victory by Lopez Obrador, who has threatened changes to the country’s landmark reform to lure private investment to its energy markets, has spooked some investors, helping send the peso currency down more than 3 percent in April.
Support for Ricardo Anaya, the candidate of the “For Mexico in Front” coalition of three parties from the right and left, grew to 25 percent from 20 percent the month before. In a recent TV debate, he portrayed himself as the only alternative to the frontrunner.
So far, Mexicans, specifically the large middle class and business sector, are turning to Anaya as the alternative.
Unlike Colombia, where a runoff is coming between right-center Duque and left-center Gustavo Petro, Mexicans have one chance to stop leftist López-Obrador.
My guess is that Duque will win in Colombia and bring back ex-president Alvaro Uribe’s successful policies.
As for Mexico, I am not sure that Anaya will close the gap, but lots of candles are burning in Mexican homes, hoping it is so.
It would be a great summer for the U.S. if right-center candidates win in Mexico and Colombia!
PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

Some thoughts about Lopez-Obrador & Mexico

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The latest news from Mexico is that Sr. Lopez-Obrador is increasing his lead and referred to as a "Tropical Messiah".   

As The WSJ wrote today:   
"If Mr. López Obrador is sworn in as president—this time for real—it isn’t entirely clear which man will turn up. 
Many fear it will be the fervent social activist with an authoritarian streak who sees the country divided in two camps, what he calls a “mafia of the powerful” against Mexico’s “good and honest people.” 
Others hope it will be the López Obrador who as Mexico City mayor proved to be a pragmatic manager, joining with telecom magnate Carlos Slim to restore down-at-the-heels neighborhoods."
Time will tell but it looks likely that LO will be the one sworn in.     I do caution that polls are polls as we learned in the US in 2016!

What does that mean for the people invested in LO's message?   My guess is that major disenchantment lies ahead and whatever political consequences come with it.

It's not too late for Mr. Anaya, Mr. Meade & "El Bronco" to consider their options.   It may be good for the country for them to unite and give the Mexican people one real alternative against Mr. LO.

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

May 2018: FOX News doing very well

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Not a shock and Fox News is # 1 again:    
In prime time, Fox News destroyed its competition, with an average total audience of 2.381 million viewers, compared to MSNBC's 1.384 million and CNN's 835,000. 
Among viewers 25-54, the group most coveted by advertisers, FNC shook off a challenge in recent months from MSNBC to claim a clear victory: 461,000 viewers, well ahead of MSNBC (329,000) and CNN (265,000).
The bottom line is that Fox is doing well for 3 reasons:

1) CNN is boring and totally predictable.   It's not working;

2) MSNBC is just crazy, unless you think that President Trump is going to be arrested in the next 24 hours; and,

3) Fox is engaging and provocative.   It's enjoyable to watch.  

And that's how I see it!   

PS: You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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