Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Don’t forget that the other guys have a diversity problem too

The Trump vs Rubio insult show has dominated the news for several days. The “in the tank for Hillary” media is having a lot of fun watching the GOP go back and forth about the size of the candidates’ hands or the reality of their tans.  
To be fair, the GOP spectacle is hard to watch. I am not enjoying it, although it is refreshing to see Rubio and Cruz finally attack Trump. 
However, the problems on the other side (i.e. Democrats) may have a bigger impact in November.  
This is from Michael Barone:
I’m not the only one who has noticed that Democratic caucus and primary turnout so far has been down as compared to 2008 and that Republican caucus and primary turnout has been up as compared to either 2012 or 2008.
Anna Greenberg, the Democratic pollster, made the same observation on a joint American Enterprise Institute/Brookings Institution/Center for American Progress panel last Thursday. The results of the South Carolina Democratic primary Saturday confirm the trend. Total turnout was 370,000, down from 30 percent from 2008’s 532,000 (I’m rounding off figures to the nearest thousand, and the 2016 numbers may be off a little from the final returns and exit poll numbers).
Many commentators have noticed that blacks constituted a higher percentage of South Carolina Democratic voters this year, 65 percent according to the exit poll, than they did in 2008, 55 percent. But this represents not a surge of blacks into the electorate, but rather the fact that black turnout declined by only 18 percent, whereas white turnout fell nearly in half, by 44 percent.
Let me add a couple of thoughts about all this.
First, we’ve been told that the GOP has a Hispanic problem, and they do. However, this problem can be fixed with a candidate that pays attention to Hispanics or speaks about school choice and other issues that matter in that community. The growing Hispanic middle class is an opportunity for a GOP nominee who avoids the kind of rhetoric that we hear from Trump.
Second, the Democrats have a “white problem” and they really do. The Democrats are losing whites in such numbers that it may be impossible for any nominee to get them back. I don’t see Hillary Clinton winning them back even if she goes into “general election” pandering soon. Bernie Sanders will win college town whites but not much more.  
We will learn in 2016 whether or not a major party can continue to lose the votes of whites, or  roughly75% of the population according to the most recent census. The Democrats will not be a national party if they only appeal to minorities or whites who work for the government.
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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A few thoughts about Super Tuesday today

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