Friday, January 02, 2015

We remember Donna Douglas (Elly May)

Don't spend a lot of time thinking about 2016 in 2015

(My new American Thinker post)


One election is over and another one is coming. The 2016 election will soon start taking shape as rumors and even some candidacy announcements are made in 2015.

Here is my suggestion: Don't make a lot of bets about 2016 a year before we hold a caucus or primary.

Also, there is a lot of uncertainty in the air, as my friend Barry Casselman wrote this week:
"On the Democratic side, there is an early and seemingly overwhelming favorite, Hillary Clinton, but she was similarly dominant in 2007-08, before being upset by Barack Obama.  In 2015, Senator Elizabeth Warren seems to be mounting a growing campaign to replace Mrs. Clinton, and former Senator James Webb has now appeared for some serious media attention.
Should Mrs. Clinton surprise everyone by deciding not to run, the bats would be cleared from the liberal belfry, and a donnybrook would likely result. Serious candidates such as Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York could then possibly get in the race with former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, California Governor Jerry Brown, Vice President Joe Biden and a parade of other wannabes.
The Republican contest is now an open field. Perhaps as many as a dozen or more conservative candidates could enter the race, including a few bats from their conservative belfry, but the early primaries and caucuses should narrow their number quickly to much fewer contenders.
By December, 2015, we will have long known whether or not Mitt Romney decided for another run, whether or not Jeb Bush’s surname is a help or hindrance, whether or not the New Jersey bridge incident still hurts Chris Christie, and whether or not Rand Paul is more than [a] niche candidate.
We will also know much more certainly whether or not there will be severe Obama “fatigue,”  especially among independent voters."
My 2015 resolution is simple: Let's focus on issues and sending bills to President Obama, from the Keystone Pipeline to repealing Obama Care. 

On the GOP side, I continue to believe that a Midwesterner, such as Governor Walker or Kasich, would be a fresh face with a résumé of results. At the same time, the voters may be ready to give a second look to a Governor Romney. And there is Governor Bush, Governor Huckabee and Governor Chrisite. And new governors in Illinois and Maryland who would be great choices for VP. 

On the Democratic side, the base can't get excited about Clinton, no matter how big her lead is or the size of her campaign team. I'd keep an eye on a Governor Brian Schweitzer, a man with a populist message that may play well in various primaries.

My 2015 resolution is simple: Let's focus on issues and sending bills to President Obama, from the Keystone Pipeline to repealing Obama Care. 

I'm in no mood yet to worry about 2016! Let's address our nation's problems and things will take care of themselves.

I'm in no mood yet to worry about 2016! Let's address our nation's problems and things will take care of themselves.


P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.


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Cuba: 2 weeks after Pres Obama's announcement with Jorge Ponce



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Happy New Year! (Unless you live in Venezuela)

(My new American Thinker post)


A few years ago, I shared a New Year's Night Party with some Venezuelan friends. I learned that night that Venezuelans are super friendly, generous, and throw some great parties.

Unfortunately, there won't be a lot of parties in Caracas this year. The main reason is the economy and all of the shortages about everything, from lemon to lime to rice.

How bad are things down in Venezuela?  The answer is very bad, as Nathaniel Parrish Flannery wrote this month:
"Venezuela’s economy is likely to continue to languish in 2015 with inflation and shortages worsening. Even though it will exacerbate the country’s current economic crisis, correcting the exchange rate and eliminating the current nonsensical multi-tiered system is one of the most prudent policy actions Maduro could take to improve Venezuela’s medium and long term economic outlook.     
According to Anabella Abadi, public policy analyst at the Caracas based consultancy ODH Grupo Consultor, “Venezuela’s economy is expected to contract in 2014 and 2015, and even though it’s already recognized as the 14th least competitive economy in the world (according to the World Economic Forum) and the eighth-worst economy for doing business (according to The World Bank), Maduro’s laws seem to discourage private investments even more...”   
Maduro’s actions aren’t likely to kickstart economic growth and bring Venezuela’s economy to an even keel. “It’ll be impossible to control inflation if the government continues to increase the amount of money circulating in the economy without a proportionate increase in the supply of goods and services. This increase in the supply side will be impossible if the central government doesn’t work with the private sector to reactivate the production apparatus,” Abadi added.     
...Until Madero addresses Venezuela’s exchange rate problems, the situation isn’t likely to improve. Few observers are optimistic. 
According to Pedro Burelli, a former board member of state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, "You take fragmentation of political power, a dire political situation, high social expectations, no cash, and a lot of people involved, and that to me is the recipe for a mess.” "
It's a first rate mess.  Indeed!

What does this mean to us watching bowl games or our favorite NFL playoff games?

First, it's likely that Venezuela will implode in 2015. It owes money to a lot of countries, like China, who will look to get paid. I'm not suggesting that China will send its gunboats to collect but they will do something.

Second, Venezuela has been subsidizing regimes in Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua. We may see a few dominoes fall after Venezuela goes down.


To say the least, Venezuela's implosion will have serious implications in our neighborhood.

P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.



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