Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Pres BO has big problems with Southern Dems

This is a story that must be causing a bit of "indigestion" at the Obama reelection office.

"President Barack Obama continued to have trouble on Tuesday performing in Democratic primaries in traditionally conservative states, barely eking out wins in Kentucky and Arkansas.

The president didn’t even have an opponent in Kentucky, but with 99 percent of the vote counted, Obama took just 57.9 percent of the vote, with the remaining more than 42 percent of ballots cast for “uncommitted.”

In Arkansas, with 70 percent of the vote tallied, Obama nabbed just 59 percent of the vote. His opponent there, John Wolfe, was able to take 41 percent of the vote at that point, according to The Associated Press.

Wolfe, an attorney from Tennessee whose platform includes repealing “Obamacare,” was able to win several counties." (Politico)

We saw similar problems in Louisiana (76-24), North Carolina (79-21), Oklahoma (57-43) and West Virginia (59-41).   Kentucky was also a problem (57-42)

Again, Pres BO had no formal opposition except in Arkansas where an underfunded opponent ran against by calling for the repeal of BO-Care! 

So what's going on?

As Richard Baehr mentioned on our show Tuesday, these are Dems in name only.  More and more Southern Dems are voting GOP at the national level.  These are the sons and daughters of the Reagan Democrats, the conservative base of the Dem party that does not subscribe to the San Francisco values proposed by Pres BO.

My guess is that this "protest vote" was driven a bit by Pres BO's recent decision to "evolve" into supporting same sex marriage.  I don't think that "same sex marriage" plays well in all of those counties between NY City and San Francisco.  I know that it does not.  Same sex marriage goes down big every time that voters get to vote!

Pres BO will win the nomination but my guess is that the party will have to offer some seats to non-BO delegates.  At the very least, Pres BO won't be unanimously renominated.

Click here for our Tuesday show: 

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Pres BO can not hit 50% with a poll that "oversampled" Dems

The latest Wash Post/ABC poll reveals a lot about the media and the Obama campaign.

First, the poll does not have an honest sample.   Ed Morrissey looked at the sample and concluded that it was a joke:

"Take a close look at the Republican representation in WaPo/ABC polls this year. Starting in January, that has been 25%, 23%, 27%, 23%, and now 22%.  The pollster seems incapable of finding a representative number of Republicans for this poll series.  Perhaps that should give the two news organizations involved a hint about finding a new pollster."

How did a poll like this get published in the first place?  Isn't there someone at the Washington Post or ABC News who actually cares about the reputation of their respective organizations?

Second, this poll also tells you a lot about the media.  It confirms that there are too many media organizations who are sloppy, or perhaps "in the tank" for BO.

Here is the bottom line:  Pres BO can not get to 50% despite a sample that "over samples" Dems.  

My guess is that Pres BO is stuck in the 45-46% range!  This is what you see in Rasmussen and Gallup, a couple of organizations that do polls based on registered or likely voters.  I should also add that Gallup & Rasmussen are in the "poll business" rather than working to reelect Pres BO!

Click here for the Tuesday show with Richard Baehr & Fausta Wertz:

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