The GOP is looking good but the election is still 9 months away

(My new American Thinker post)

The latest Obamacare mandate delay is further evidence that the law is an "unsustainable political burden" on Democrats in 2014.  

This is good news for the GOP.  At the same time, we are not there yet. There are still 9 months of tough campaigning ahead.  Be careful about underestimating the Democrats' machine to get voters out the vote.  Or, their ability to place the race over and often.

We begin with 4 obvious pick ups:  Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.   

The next group is very likely but it will require a strong GOP candidate:  Louisiana, North Carolina and Alaska.  The 3 Democrat incumbents will play "the race card," especially in Louisiana and North Carolina.  Get ready for a vicious campaign.

That's 7. It takes a net pick up of 6! 

The next group is Michigan and Iowa, a couple that could go GOP because there are Democrats retiring.   There is a strong female candidate in Michigan but Iowa is still up in the air.

That would make it 9, a very possible outcome if we have a "wave election" as we saw in 2006 & 2008. 

The GOP has two potential problems that could blow any change of a Senate takeover, i.e. Kentucky and Georgia.  Let's hope that the primary does not produce a GOP candidate that can not win a general election, as we saw in 2012 in Missouri and Indiana.

2014 will be different than 2012, as my friend Barry Cassekman wrote:

"What is different from 2012, however, is that there is no presidential contest, and that intraparty challenges to incumbent GOP senators seem to lacking voter traction so far. Since the number of Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2016 will greatly outnumber Democrats ( a reversal of the past three cycles), any hope of GOP control of the senate would be lost for many years if the Republicans do not succeed this year.
The "Tea Party" wing of the conservative party, however, remains potent in several states, and until the GOP nominees are finally chosen later in the year, the outcomes of several races are in some doubt.

A GOP majority in the US Senate is critical in the last 2 years of the Obama administration.  It is the only way that we will get to the bottom of Benghazi and the IRS scandals.  Also, it is the only way to put a check on ObamaCare.

Wanted:  Candidates who can win general elections NOT just primaries!

P. S. You can hear my chat about 2014 US Senate contests with Barry Casselman, The Prairie Editor & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

Listen To Politics Internet Radio Stations with Silvio Canto Jr on BlogTalkRadio

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Really? A poll about US-Cuba policy based on “1,024 randomly selected adults”?

(My new Babalu post)

There are polls, such as those based on likely or registered voters, and then there are those based on "1,024 randomly selected adults".    The former is a serious effort to understand public opinion.  The latter is just a "cheap" effort to influence our foreign policy.

The New York Times is reporting on a new poll that goes like this: 

"“This survey shows that the majority of Americans on both sides of the aisle are ready for a policy shift,” Peter Schechter and Jason Marczak, the top two executives at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center of the Atlantic Council, wrote in an introduction to the survey. “Most surprisingly, Floridians are even more supportive than an already supportive nation to incrementally or fully change course.”     

While the survey showed that Americans have concerns about the Cuban government’s political repression, Mr. Schechter and Mr. Marczak said, they “recognize the need for alternatives in light of the failure of the current policy to achieve its objective.”   The survey found that 56 percent of respondents nationwide favor changing Cuba policy, a majority that jumps to 63 percent among Florida adults and 62 percent among Latinos nationwide. 

While support is strongest among Democrats and independents, the survey showed 52 percent of Republicans also favor normalization."

The problem with this poll is that the media will broadcast the headline but fail to mention this:

"Conducted by telephone and cellphone in English and Spanish from Jan. 7 to Jan. 22, the survey was based on responses from 1,024 randomly selected adults, with oversamples of 617 Florida residents and 525 Latinos. The nationwide margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points; for Florida residents and for Latinos it was plus or minus 4 percentage points."

This is not a serious poll.  This is an effort to influence policy with a poll based on a lousy sample!

By the way, wonder how many of these "randomly selected adults" know that the Cuban dictatorship  is holding a US citizen named Allan Wall on bogus charges?

or engaged in a massive repression campaign against dissidents?  

or that the Cuban people have never been "polled" by an independent organization on their  feelings about the dictatorship running the island for 55 years?

P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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