According to current polls, the election will be close in November. It may not turn out that way but that’s what we believe today.
What could be President Trump’s winning card? The answer is VP Mike Pence, who has looked very presidential lately.
2020 may be the first time that voters look very closely at # 2. They may vote based on which # 2 is more qualified to be # 1.
Both President Trump (74) and former VP Biden (78) would be older next January than what we’ve usually seen in the presidency. President Reagan turned 78 weeks after leaving office. We think of President Eisenhower as a grandfather figure but he was 70 when he left office.
Add to this the risk of coronavirus in older people, and don’t blame voters for looking at # 2 as a potential president.
On that basis, VP Pence gets a good grade.
On the other hand, former VP Biden has a problem.
First, he committed to naming a woman. Some want him to pick him a woman of color. One woman is running for the job on that basis.
Second, what woman on the short list has executive experience?
The governor of New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham does, but she runs a very small state. And the Democrats are likely to win New Mexico anyway! She would have been a good pre-COVID choice but things are different now.
The rest are U.S. senators, but they are also left of center. They won’t help him win much between the coasts. They won’t add votes that the Democrats already have.
Third, former VP Biden could break his promise and look for a governor, like Governor John Bel Edwards of Louisiana. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Governor Edwards likes President Trump too much and signed a “heartbeat” law to stop abortions. The base would never accept a “pro-life Democrat” who speaks well of President Trump. He won’t deliver Louisiana.
Up in Montana, Governor Steve Bullock succeeds in a red Western state. However, I don’t think that he will turn on the base. He didn’t in the debates.
Can he break that promise to pick a woman? I guess so, but the convention won’t like it.
Pence the ace? I think so. Unfortunately, none of the women under consideration can stand up to VP Pence during their debate.