Saturday, May 23, 2020

Monday’s poll, Tuesday’s poll and so on!

We're Tracking 2020 Polls | FiveThirtyEight
By the way, do news readers do anything but read poll results these days?  It sure feels that way:  Monday’s poll, Tuesday’s poll, Wednesday’s poll and so on.
Well, one poll has been fairly consistent.  I’m talking about the “betting odds” poll showing Trump up 9!
What poll do you believe?  I guess that it depends on who you are voting for.  Polls are like prime time cable news shows.  You like the poll, or the host, that tells you what you want to hear.
All these polls showing former VP Joe Biden beating President Trump are actually a serious burden for Democrats.
How do you replace a guy headed for a landslide?   He is up 11 in one poll and 8 in another!
As we know, these polls are snapshots based on samples.   The methodology is problematic.  Worst of all, how do you take a poll in a country where no one answers the phone?
There is no guarantee that Pres. Trump will be reelected.  
At this point in 1984, President Reagan had slightly over 50% approval and went on to win 49 states and 60% of the popular vote.  Today, President Trump is at 45% and in the range to win reelection.
To paraphrase Gerry and The Pacemakers:   “Don’t let another poll catch you crying”!  Enjoy your weekend and don’t live from poll to poll.
P.S.  You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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