Sunday, August 21, 2016

Clinton will try to run out the clock this fall

We understand that Hillary Clinton is not going to Louisiana.  I agree with her that candidates on the ground may be more distracting than helpful.  Nevertheless, a little show of support would help, especially after what thesemedia folks said about President Bush in 2005.
She is not going to many other places, either.   
I think there are a couple of things going on here:
1) Her health is an issue, as it should be with any 68-year-old person running for president.  Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump (who is 70) should release their medical records.  In all fairness, Mr. Trump shows a lot more vitality, but that’s more of his personality than an objective health finding.
I’m old enough to remember all the questions about then candidate Reagan in 1980.  Remember the Saturday Night Live sketchabout President Reagan getting a bit old to be president?  It wasn’t the only time jokes were made about his age.   
2) The latest RCP average has Mrs. Clinton up by 5.7%.  The electoral college looks even better!
So why put her out?  She is very stiff in public.  Furthermore, the news media does not seem to mind that Mrs. Clinton does not hold press conferences.  Why fight the media if they are ready to carry your water all the way to Election Day?
So why risk it?  Let her run on mute until the debates and take a chance on Mr. Trump saying something that dominates news coverage for another week.
To be fair, the strategy has its risks, as we are seeing in Louisiana, where Mr. Trump looks more concerned by talking to real voters.    
Furthermore, the polls are tightening, a reflection that her convention bounce may be evaporating.   
And, most importantly, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economy, and God only knows what October surprise is out there.  Unlike other elections, I’m a bit skeptical of these polls, because people are not in love with Mrs. Clinton.
My guess is that we won’t see a lot of Mrs. Clinton until the debates.  I think her team is betting on Mr. Trump taking the limelight and fumbling again with another round of self-destructive comments.    
Frankly, she is a horrible candidate, so why not run out the clock if you can get away with it?   
Staying away is the best strategy!
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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