A post from November 2010:
Making predictions in mid-terms is risky.
However, I am very confident to write this: The GOP will win the House but fall short in the US Senate.
What number? 45-50 seats in the House! (They need 39)
6-8 in the US Senate! (They need 10)
Let's put our money on Gallup:
"The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions.
Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%.
This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided."
Charlie Cook is predicting 50-60 in the House and 6-8 in the Senate.
Like previous mid-terms, it will come down to "turnout". Therefore, we should know something about "turnout" in the late afternoon.
No matter what, Pres BO will have a very different Congress.
Click here for our chat with Bill Katz & Clifford Bazar:
