Wednesday, January 04, 2012

A quick reaction to Iowa!

8 votes out of 120,000?

I had a feeling that Romney had won when Santorum spoke first.  Coincidence?  Perhaps?  My guess is that they looked at the outstanding precincts and figured that the odds favored Romney.

Nevertheless, this was an outstanding night for Santorum, a very nice candidate who will have a harder time nationally than he did in Iowa.

Again, I am not trying to diminish or devalue Santorum's performance.  I'm just being very realistic about the national campaign.

I thought that Gingrich sounded a bit desperate.  Perry and Bachman will probably end their efforts.  Paul is Paul.

We move on to New Hampshire and my guess is that you will see more attacks on Romney but he will prevail.

Last, but not least, I found some of the Dem analysis a bit silly.

One of them said that the GOP is not enthusiastic and another said that this is a weak field.  (I guess that the 2008 Dem field was stronger?)

Like always, Iowa's results will be forgotten quickly and we will move on to NH, Florida and SC.

My guess is that Romney will win NH, Florida and lose in SC.  At the same time, he may win in SC if Gingrich and Santorum fight it out.

Time will tell.  

I just remind everyone that the goal is to defeat Pres BO not to destroy each other! 

Speaking of defeating Pres BO, I think that Ron Paul should say "NO" to any 3rd party efforts.  We don't want to see Pres BO reelected with 44% of the vote:



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Please don't give us "a plurality president" in November!


What's the worst case political scenario for 2012?

The answer is Pres BO reelected with a plurality of the vote in a 3-way race. 

Let's say that Rep Ron Paul runs as a 3rd party candidate and draws 10% of the vote.  The outcome of that is that Pres BO is reelected but does not have any kind of mandate.

In other words, 2013 would be just like 2011-12, i.e. nothing gets done!

Let's hope that Rep Paul puts the country ahead of the wishes of his very devoted base.  Otherwise, we will see Pres BO reelected and things won't change.  And that would be scary!

P.S. Check out our Tuesday commentary:


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