Over the last few weeks, I’ve heard from many Mexican friends about the violence south of the order. It is no longer cartel vs. cartel. Instead, it has spilled into urban areas, and people are scared.
The abrupt decline in AMLO’s popularity in June is mainly because the month was particularly bloody.
In the first half of June alone, 650 murders were recorded between 6th and 12th June.
Just on one day, Saturday 8th June, 113 deaths were reported and another 191 on Sunday.
Also in June, in Jalisco, the cradle of one of the most powerful narco-trafficking groups of Mexico, employees of the Intermunicipal System of Potable Water and Sewerage Services (Siapa) discovered 11 garbage bags with corpses. Jalisco reported 76 murders in the first half of June.
As a result, 60% of Mexicans believe that insecurity has worsened in the last seven months.
My guess is that the violence would be bad no matter who was president. Nevertheless, President Lopez-Obrador is the incumbent and he is catching the criticism.
In other words, the violence will continue as long as criminal elements can walk cash and guns into Mexico without consequence. We think of the human traffic north. In Mexico, it’s the guns and cash going south that everybody talks about.
There are other issues, such as the economy and health care.
On the economy, it’s hard to understand because the U.S. is growing and the economies usually ride up or down together. Why isn’t Mexico doing better since the U.S. is doing well? It’s complicated because it’s the first time that I’ve seen that.
On health care, the Lopez-Obrador made very controversial budget cuts laying off public service doctors and others.
President Lopez-Obrador has time and it could look different in a year. At the same time, it may look worse, specially the out-of-control shootings.
One way or another, the honeymoon is over for Presidente LO.
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