A preview of the 2013 baseball season

Baseball is here and it's time to make some predictions.

Let's go to the National League:

Atlanta and Washington will fight all year for the NL East title.  I will pick the Braves because of the Upton brothers and that great pitching staff. 

Cincinnati will win easily in the NL Central.  I don't see another team in that division that will challenge the Reds.

San Francisco will win the NL West because there is just too much pitching on that team.  The Giants are Exhibit A that winning in baseball is all about pitching.  Los Angeles and Arizona will be contenders but the Giants are just too strong.

Washington and Los Angeles will meet for the NL Wild Card game.  The Dodgers will win and move on.

Let's go to the American League:

Toronto and Tampa Bay will have a very exciting pennant race.  It will definitely come down to those games in September.  I pick the Blue Jays to edge out the Rays.  Sorry but the Yankees are too old and disabled and the Red Sox need a little time.  Baltimore is a young team and you never know how they will do the second time around.

Detroit will win the NL Central.  The rest of the division is weak but keep an eye on Kansas City because they've had a wonderful farm system for 3-4 years.  They could surprise if the Tigers suffer injuries. 

Texas and Los Angeles will fight for the pennant all year.  It will come down to the last 6 games in late September.    The Angels are very strong on paper but they have failed to deliver in the past.  The Rangers have a lot of post-season experience and the starting rotation looks solid.  I pick Texas to win the AL West on the last series of the season.

Los Angeles will play Tampa Bay for the AL Wild Card.  The Rays will win and move on.

Cincinnati will beat Atlanta and San Francisco to win the NL title.  Texas will beat Tampa Bay and then Toronto and return to the World Series for the 3rd time in 4 years!

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Iraq slaps Pres Obama & Secretary Kerry!

Iraq is back in the news with the 10th anniversary of the war.   I'm sure all of you remember when Democrats went to the microphones to tell us that Sadam Hussein was a threat and must be removed.  As for me, I supported the war and believe that we are better off without Saddam and the Iraq of the 1990s!  See Professor VD Hanson!
Today, Secretary Kerry, one of the aforementioned Democrats, is finding that the Iraqis are not happy to cooperate. 

In fact, Secretary Kerry is "pleading" to the Iraqi government:

"Secretary of State John Kerry pressed Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki on Sunday to stop Iran from flying arms across Iraqi territory to the beleaguered Syrian regime, but found him unwilling to give ground."

Doesn't the sight of a US Secretary of State pleading make you mad?  Isn't this government grateful that we lost 4500 soldiers?  

On the other hand, can you blame Iraq for looking to the future?

Like Afghanistan, Iraq is looking to a future without the US.  They know that we are "disengaged" and "disinterested".  

Iran is very engaged and interested and they have a border with Iraq.

Again, what would you do if you were the Iraq government?  Would you listen to a superpower focused on "hope and change" or an aggressive neighbor determined to get its way?

How did we get here?  How did this happen?

First, President Obama did not fight for an agreement leaving troops in Iraq. 

I don't buy this nonsense that leaving troops in Iraq was unpopular.  It was just as popular in Europe but President Truman explained to the new governments that the troops were there to protect them from those tanks on the other side of Berlin.

Why didn't we make the same argument to Iraq?

I repeat that no one likes "foreign troops".  Therefore, it is the responsibility of "leaders" to explain the strategic significance of US troops.   It was our "job" to tell the region that the Iraq War was over but that troops would stay behind to remind Iran that
we were serious about containing their expansion.

Second, President Obama concluded that the war on terror ended on the day that we killed Osama. 

In fact, killing Osama was just one chapter in an ongoing war.  It has not stopped the growth of terrorist elements.  

Who would have believed this in 2009 when the Bush administration handed new President Obama a very manageable situation in Iraq?

We are paying the price of indifference and a president who seems more eager to tell "yes we can" screamers what they want to hear than conducting a foreign policy that promotes US interests.

It is very sad to read that Secretary Kerry is "pleading" to the Iraq government. 

We look "weak" and that is reflected in new polls that show that President Obama is more unpopular than President Bush.  

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Remember when Cuba was synonymous with sugar?

My new American Thinker post.

Before the so called "revolution", Havana had a baseball team called "The Sugar Kings". They were a big part of Cuban baseball history:

"No ordinary minor league team, the Sugar Kings were the Cincinnati Reds' International League Class AAA affiliate based in Havana for six and a half seasons in prerevolutionary Cuba. Though the team's existence was brief, the Sugar Kings drew a strong following in Cuba and became a springboard for Latin American players."  (NYTimes)

The Kings were eventually moved to Jersey City in 1961 when the professional league was canceled.

Apparently, the Sugar Kings were not the only thing that left Cuba. It appears that sugar production has left the island too.

My good friend Carlos Eire reminds us today that sugar production is way down in Cuba, one more tragic consequence of "Fidelismo" in the island:

"An island nation that once supplied the world with sugar can no longer produce enough for its own people.  Before Fidel Castro came along,  Cuba was producing an average of 5.63 million metric tons of sugar per year.  Now, it can barely reach 1.5.  The Castro regime blames everyone and everything but itself for creating this ongoing disaster, but the truth is that  all the blame can be placed squarely on the so-called Revolution.""

Yes, Cuba is the everlasting disaster.  Even sugar cane has ceased to grow in the island known for its baseball "sugar kings"!

We should add that "prostitution" and "hotels for foreigners" are going strong.  Airplanes full of Europeans land in Cuba every week. They are taken to the "resorts" and the "revolution" provides them with a young Cuban woman for their pleasures.

It breaks my heart. The Castro family are now "pimps" too!

Before the so called revolution, Cuba had a vibrant economy, no one left in a raft, the sugar cane fields were private and very productive, and we had a baseball team called "the sugar kings".

I guess that they would be called the "sugar have nots" today!

Very sad.

Of course, the saddest thing is to watch this parade of fools from Hollywood who go down to Cuba and pay their respects to the two brothers running the island.

Click here for our Monday night show about Cuba:

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Yoani Sanchez in the US

Yoani Sanchez has been traveling in the US and Latin America.  Her trip started off with a little controversy but she is doing quite well now. 

Click here for Monday's show with Ted Henken and Michael Prada:

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The GOP needs to start thinking positively

Am I the only who can not find the president with the big mandate? 

Remember how he was going to crush the GOP and pick up the House in 2014?  

Recall  how the media ranked President Obama as a political force capable of moving mountains, lowering our temperatures and even getting red-state Democrats to vote "blue"?

Don't look now but Senate Democrats are now buying into "hope and change".  In fact, President Obama can not even get a "gun control" law after the terrible tragedies of Aurora and Newtown.
How is he going to pass a bill on climate change, or a carbon tax or more "taxes on the rich" with these Democrats?   The answer is that President Obama may have 55 Democrat Senators but he does not  have the votes to support his agenda.  

We also see Democrats "repealing" the medical device tax, a major blow for ObamaCare.  There are also a lot of Senate Democrats rethinking The Keystone Pipeline.

My point is that the Democrats have problems, too.  Frankly, some of their problems are just as big, if not bigger, than ours.  So let's think positive and stop dwelling on the losses of 2012!

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The WBC and a really good baseball fight to remember

Chapter 3 of the World Baseball Classic is over.    Frankly, I am not convinced.

First, how can you have tournament with "pitch counts"? 

Second, how can you send Team USA without our best players? 

In other words, WBC is the kind of thing that sounds good over coffee but just doesn't work out in the real world.

Drop the WBC.  It is not real baseball!

We did have a great fight this year between Mexico and Canada.  It had nothing to do with NAFTA!  Here is the fight:



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Democrats better at talking about immigration reform than doing it

 

We've learned a couple of things this month about Senate Democrats:

1) They passed a budget based on tax increases rather than any serious cost-cutting;

2) Obama-Care is a first class mess and the repeal is actually starting with Democrats who will have to defend their vote in the 2014 election. The infamous medical device tax has just been "repealed" by the same people who passed it in 2010;

3) Democrats do not have the votes to pass an "assault weapons ban". Of course, these are the same Democrats who cheered President Obama at The State of the Union speech; and,

4) Senate Democrats are once again coming to terms with the reality that immigration reform requires the "guest worker visas" that Big Labor hates.

The Wall Street Journal reminded us today that the Democrats are always a lot better at making immigration reform promises than actually delivering a solution:

"We understand the political imperative, and these columns have favored liberal (in the 19th-century sense of that word) immigration policies since before the current crop of Republicans was born. But a shrunken, bureaucratic guest-worker program that lets unions define job openings and determine wages is worse than the status quo. It won't help the economy but it will guarantee that illegal immigrants keep coming. Then in 15 or 20 years Republicans can enjoy debating what to do with another 11 million illegals who want a path to citizenship."

I don't know about you but I find all of this awfully similar to then Senator Obama killing McCain-Kennedy in 2007 with that "poison amendment" about guest worker visas.

Let's not forget the Dorgan amendment to McCain-Kennedy from 2007, or the Democrat "let's carry the water for the labor unions" bill supported by then Senator Obama.

The Dorgan Amendment, again supported by Sen Obama, killed "guest worker visas" and GOP support. It dashed any hope of passing serious immigration reform.

We seem to be in the same place in 2013.

Once again, Senate Democrats are getting pressure from labor unions about the number of workers that they intend to "legalize".

It's the same old movie that we've seen for almost 50 years, since the Democrat party canceled the "brasero" program, or the only realistic immigration reform that we've ever had in modern history.

The Democrats are "the great fraud" of immigration reform.

Unfortunately, Hispanics in the US keep voting for the people who tell them what they want to hear but then don't deliver after the election.

The "no se puede" Democrats are about to choose Big Labor over Hispanics again!

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What's up with Cyprus?

Trust me!  You are not alone if you got hit by the Cyprus story between the eyes, too.  Nobody saw this coming.  It is just the latest alarm to go off in the Eurozone.

Click here for our Friday show with Dr Ileana Johnson Paugh:

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Yoani Sanchez and the US embargo against Cuba

My new American Thinker post.

Yoani Sanchez is a wonderful lady.  She has single handily put Cuba's repressive state on the front pages.   Her trip to the US and other places has been a great success even if there were demonstrators calling her a CIA agent.  I hope that they don't email the editors of American Thinker that I am an agent of the CIA, too.

By the way, do these demonstrators know that such demonstrations are not allowed in Cuba?  It's amazing to me the extent to which the left will go to make fools of themselves.

Yoani is wrong about the embargo. I am not angry with Yoani about that.  I think that she has never been told, or heard about, the real story of the embargo and why the Castro dictatorship is desperately trying to lift it.

Cuba does not have an embargo problem. Instead, it has a "we can't get credit anymore" problem. Cuba also has a "socialism does not work" problem.

Cuba can do business with any country on earth.The world is ready and willing to sell its goods and services to Cuba. Unfortunately for the Castro dictatorship, "credit lines" are not being extended.  No one wants to sell Cuba on credit, a reflection of the island's inability to service its debts.

I repeat: Cuba has a "socialism is a GRANDE PROBLEMA" problem!

Cuba restructured its foreign debt in November 2011.  In fact, Cuban debt is such "basura" (Spanish for junk) that some speculators are buying it at "6 to 10 cents on the dollar" hoping that they can make a huge return after Castro dies:  "Leadership change is frequently good for deadbeat sovereign bonds!"

Who would benefit from lifting the embargo?  Not the Cuban people!  Not Yoani and her husband!  Not my cousin and family still living in Cuba!

The real beneficiary will be the Castro dictatorship who will now have access to US credit lines, specifically export financing available to US companies. For example, Alabama sells to Cuba but on a "cash" basis. 

The second beneficiary is the Castro family businesses. There is no "free press" in Cuba but we understand that the family fortune is over $1 billion!  These businesses operate in tourism and other trade with Cuba.   

"Castro Inc" is a huge capitalist enterprise operating for the benefit of Fidel and Raul Castro, the same two who are greeted by leftist crowds all over as champions of the poor and providers of free health care for their people. In fact, the only thing that Fidel & Raul Castro know about poverty is that they've created lots of  it!  And the only thing that they know about health care is that they rely on foreign doctors when they get sick.

With all due respect to Yoani, she is wrong about lifting the embargo.  We learned from Yoani that there are many dissidents in Cuba, such as Dr Biscet, who do not want a relaxation of the embargo. 

Let's hope that they convince Yoani so that we can expedite the collapse of the Castro dictatorship.  In the meantime, please let me repeat that Yoani is a wonderful but very wrong on the embargo.

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Some thoughts about Latin America!

We discussed Yoani Sanchez in the US plus the difficulties of a post-Chavez Venezuela and Pope Francis meeting with Pres Fernandez of Argentina.  

Our panel included  Fausta Wertz, Michael Prada and Jorge Ponce, who wrote an article about Yaoni Sanchez in Washington DC.

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The GOP obituary is very premature

This is my new American Thinker post.

The GOP is correctly looking back at 2012 and asking:  what happened?  I'm sure that every businessman reading this understands that it's good to sit back and ask:  Why did I lose that deal?  What did my competitor do to get the business?

I'm OK with looking back but not writing an obituary or bathing in all of these pessimistic waters.

In fact, I'm not the only one who thinks that the obituary is premature.  There are two Democrats who agree with me.

The first one is Rowland Martin at CNN.   He is reminding "giddy Democrats" to tone down and look at some electoral reality, specially the GOP success stories at the state level:

"Maybe more of my brothers and sisters in Washington need to get outside the Beltway, hit the road and discover the far more expansive America that is happening outside Washington, Maryland, Virginia, New York and New Jersey. If they do, they'll find out that the conventional wisdom is pretty much worthless."

Another Democrat is Ted Van Dyk who is very concerned about the state of the Democrat party and how President Obama got reelected:

"Defying the odds, Mr. Obama did become the first president since Franklin Roosevelt to be re-elected with an election-year unemployment rate above 7.8%. Yet his victory wasn't based on public affirmation of his agenda. Instead, it was based on a four-year mobilization-executed with unprecedented skill-of core Democratic constituencies, and on fear campaigns in which Mitt Romney and the Republicans were painted as waging a "war on women," being servants of the wealthy, and of being hostile toward Latinos, African Americans, gays and the middle class. I couldn't have imagined any one of the Democratic presidents or presidential candidates I served from 1960-92 using such down-on-all-fours tactics."

Mr Van Dyk is saying what a lot of giddy Democtats aren't thinking.  Nobody voted to reelect Obama.  His voters were scared to death about Romney.  It worked but it will make governing very hard!

Again, the GOP needs a more realistic approach to immigration reform, one that offers more work visas to people who want to work in the US. I think that we will reconnect with Asians and other upscale immigrant groups by facilitating more visas for engineers and technical professionals that our country needs.

But let's not forget the big lesson of 2012:  Obama found voters in social networks and we were still mailing them pieces with "forever" stamps on the envelopes.

In baseball terms, the Obama campaign threw a pitch that the Romney team had never seen before.

Can we learn a thing or two about losing?  Yes.

Do we have to do a "cynical evolution" on same sex marriage, like Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama, to appeal to young people?  No we don't.

Like the obituaries written about the Democrat party after the 2004 election, today's obituary about the GOP will find its way to the deleted section of our email soon.

Speaking of obituaries, the people in the GOP tormented about 2012 should check out Larry Sabato's early take on the 2014 elections.  He likes the GOP's chances a lot. 

And so do I specially when more and more Americans realize how unbelievably costly and unbearable ObamaCare is.

P.S. American Thinker readers may enjoy my conversation with Richard Baehr about this on Tuesday.  Click here for the Tuesday show:

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From Yoani Sanchez to Mexico to Argentina. a lot of is going on in Latin America

Yoani Sanchez is in the US answering questions and facing a few demonstrators.  Overall, her trip has been positive although some of her answers have left us a bit confused.

For example, she is against the US embargo.  What's wrong with that position?  There is no evidence that lifting the embargo will improve the life of Cubans.  In fact, lifting the embargo will simply mean that the Castro regime, and the companies run by the dictatorship, will have more dollars to deposit in foreign accounts.  The second benefit of lifting embargo is that Cuba will have access to credit lines.  Again, these credit lines will only enrich the Castro family.

We also discussed the economic contrast in Latin America.  On one side, you have the "free market" success stories:  Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Peru.  On the other side, the socialist basket cases:  Cuba, Argentina, Venezuela and Bolivia.

The saddest part is that the Obama administration is absent.  We do not have a policy toward the region.  We are not opening up markets for US companies by expanding trade with our southern neighbors.  We are missing in action, a sad chapter in US-Latin America history.

Click here for our chat with Monica Showalter of IBD: 

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Foreign policy will be Pres BO's headache in the second term

Pres BO would rather talk about health care, global warming, free college tuition and and "social justice".  However, he may not have that choice as more and more foreign policy problems come to this desk.

Afghanistan is now a big mess, in large part because we tipped our hand about withdrawing troops.  We should have followed "the 30,000 troop surge" with words that confirmed our commitment to a solution rather than pandering to the Dem left.  

I don't defend Pres Karzai.  However, we are leaving him behind and he has to coexist with the bad guys!

North Korea is out of control.  

Iran is on its way to getting a bomb and there may be a connection to the aforementioned North Korea.  See Bill Katz' post on the topic:

"Obama expressed the belief that it would take Iran another year to develop an atomic bomb.  The Israeli timeline is much tighter.

The main issue, though, is whether Obama can be believed.  He has not established a credible record in foreign policy, and North Korea's successful march toward nuclear weapons and the missiles to carry them does not give us confidence that he can stop Iran.  Indeed, North Korea is one of Iran's suppliers."

The Middle East and North Africa are louder than ever.  Syria is getting worse every day.

And add to all of this the Benghazi scandal and foreign policy will likely consume Pres BO's second term. 

Click for the Sunday show with Bill Katz of Urgent Agenda:

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Muchas gracias for a 'triple first' of a Pope

My new American Thinker post.

It is a great day to be a Catholic.  We have a new Pope and he is a triple first:

"The new pope, Jorge Mario Bergoglio (pronounced Ber-GOAL-io), will be called Francis, the 266th pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church. He is also the first non-European pope in more than 1,200 years and the first member of the Jesuit order to lead the church."

"3 firsts" in one Pope:  Latin American, Jesuit and non-European!  I did not see that coming!

As a Latin American, who grew up in Cuban churches when the mass was still in Latin, I am so pleased that the Vatican has selected a man who was born speaking Spanish.

 

It will be a huge boost to a region that has felt underrepresented by the choices made in the Vatican.  I hear that 40% of the Catholics live in the Caribbean and Latin America.  Furthermore, half of the world's Catholics under 40 live in Latin America!

 

How much longer can the Vatican overlook the one region of the world where the church has so many young members?

 

However, there is something about this new Pope that I like even more:  He chose the name of Francis!  

 

We all remember how Saint Francis was told to rebuild the church.  Frankly, the Catholic Church needs a little rebuilding and it starts with the Vatican bureaucracy. 

 

The recent scandals have hurt the church deeply.

 

First, it showed that the Vatican bureaucracy was more concerned with protecting bad priests than cleaning up their criminal behavior.  Yes, I said criminal behavior; and;

 

Second, the actions of a small number of priests has stained the wonderful work of men and women who've made up the clergy over centuries.

 

Let me give you two examples of good priests and nuns who did so much to help the Cuban immigrants and people who fought the communist dictatorship in the island.

 

Operation Pedro Pan brought thousands of Cuban children to the US in the early 1960's.  it was run by Father Walsh and a lot of beautiful nuns who cared for the children until they were reunited with their parents.

 

Cuban priests used to hide dissidents in their churches.  One of these men was Father Miguel Angel Loredo, a big hero of mine.  There were always Cuban priests in the political prisons.  

 

Again, it breaks my heart that a small group of priests have filled the front pages with their awful acts and overshadowed the beautiful work of so many over time.

 

My only concern is that he is 76 years old.  The papacy is a very difficult job, from the travel to the day to day management of the bureaucracy.  We pray that Pope Francis selects a fresh new team that will tackle the problems and fight secularism all over the world.

Good luck to Pope Francis!  We should all say  a prayer for the new Pope!  And we say "muchas gracias" to the Cardinals who made this wonderful choice.

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