Some of us are old enough to remember the last two presidents who lost their reelection bids, i.e. Jimmy Carter in 1980 and the late GHW Bush in 1992.
It does not look today that President Trump will suffer their fate on reelection day.
According to a new poll of 53,408 GOP voters, he is holding his base and not facing a challenge from within:
Currently, 85 percent of these likely Republican voters approve of Mr. Trump, and that has inched up two percentage points in the last four weeks.
Another 76 percent of the voters support Mr. Trump’s nomination, and that too has risen two percentage points in the past month.
The painstaking poll also gauges support for Mr. Trump rather than another GOP candidate — this among 27 different demographics. That support ranges from a low of 62 percent among moderate Republicans to a high of 91 percent among those who are “very conservative.”
The massive poll also confirms that there is little appetite to vote for someone who will challenge President Trump.
So President Trump does not face the problems that brought down President Carter or President GWH Bush.
Back in 1980, most people saw the Carter presidency as a failed effort. He was also challenged by Senator Ted Kennedy in the primaries creating a huge divide among Democrats.
Back in 1992, President Bush was challenged by Pat Buchanan in the primaries and Ross Perot in the general election. I don’t know how damaging Buchanan was, but Perot’s candidacy was fatal to President Bush.
Again, the election is 19 months in the future, so take predictions with caution. Nevertheless, the signs are good that President Trump will be in fine shape for reelection.
As John Zogby pointed out, President Trump is also getting a lot of help from Democrats who tells us how much they hate him rather than present credible alternative policies.
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