Gov Romney "got it" in Texas last night. He will be the GOP nominee this fall and let's all get down to business.
Let's take a look at the Romney vs Obama campaign in late May:
1) The "poll numbers" look very good for Romney. The latest "RCP average of polls" has it a dead heat. However, the key number is that Pres BO, the incumbent, is under 50%! Ask any political consultant and he will tell that incumbents consistently under 50% lose reelection!
2) The Obama reelection message shifts from week to week. It was "hope and change" in 2008. Ed Morrissey nailed it: It's "fear and inertia" this time around!
3) The Obama message goes a bit like this:
"We killed Osama.....Romney is going to send your "abuela" back to Mexico.....we killed Osama......Romney is going to take your grandmother's Social Security check and give it to the rich......we killed Osama.....the world respects us because Obama said so.......Romney is going to make us extremely unpopular in Europe because he won't promise to close GITMO.....we killed Osama.....did I tell you that we killed Osama?....yes I killed Osama."
Sorry, a campaign of fear is not going to cut it. Again, I loved Ed's analysis:
"Obama's bigger problem is his lack of a coherent and positive vision.
In 2008, Obama's team didn't need to produce a complicated and nuanced
agenda for his presidency; not being the establishment was enough.
This
time, Obama has to either produce a real agenda to justify a second term
after three years of economic stagnation, or he has to make his
opponent look scary and weird.
So far, Team Obama has opted for Plan Scary. They have painted Mitt
Romney as a heartless "vampire capitalist" and dug up stories of
high-school bullying. They have used Ann Romney's passion for horses as a
way to remind voters of just how wealthy the Romneys are.
But those
attacks have largely backfired as Democrats objected to attacks on
private equity, an industry on which they rely for donors, and the
mean-spiritedness of the personal attacks stoked sympathy for the
Romneys, especially Ann."
Again, "Plan Scary" won't cut it. It reminds me of 1980 when a desperate Pres Carter promoted candidate Reagan as a threat and too dangerous to sit in the Oval Office.
It fell apart for two reasons.
Carter was a failure. It's hard to defend "failure" by scaring people about your opponent.
The second reason is that Reagan just said: "There you go again....."
Most people laughed and agreed with Reagan. He carried 41 states and the election was over around 8pm CT!
I don't know if the Obama campaign will be stupid enough to continue playing "Plan Scary". At the same time, what else are they going to do? Defend their record?
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Tags: Gov Romney wins Texas and moves one step closer to winning in November
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