We will know about the 2012 elections in 6 months. Yes, we are into the countdown to 11-6-12, or the day that Americans vote for (we pray) a new president.
It's early but some indications must very troubling for an incumbent president seeking reelection:
1) Pres BO spoke to a "half empty" auditorium on Friday. Where are the young people? They can't find work, unfortunately. We've gone from 'yes we can" to "I'm back home with my parents because there are no jobs". The young people, according to Gallup, are not dancing "the yes we can" this time around.
2) Gov Romney is ahead in the last 3 polls of voters. To be fair, it's a dead heat and within the margin of error. However, the key number is that the incumbent Pres BO is under, and has been under 50%, for quite some time. Incumbents usually lose when they are under 50%. Just ask any campaign consultant!
3) The Hispanic "apathy" has to be very concerning for the Obama reelection campaign. The Obama team has been desperately trying to scare Hispanics. They want Hispanics to buy into the "Romney will send your abuela back to Durango" narrative. Or, Romney will have the police pick up Hispanos and send them back to Jalisco. Or those terrible Republicans don't let me pass those reforms that I promised the last time around.
However, it looks like a lot of Hispanics are just turning off the Obama channel and switching to the "telenovela". I guess that a lot of Hispanics would rather watch a real fantasy than another of Pres BO's "Cinco de Mayo" speeches.
However, it looks like a lot of Hispanics are just turning off the Obama channel and switching to the "telenovela". I guess that a lot of Hispanics would rather watch a real fantasy than another of Pres BO's "Cinco de Mayo" speeches.
The campaign can not be happy with Hispanic registration. According to Ronald Brownstein, registration has been below expectations. He cites Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, which studies Hispanic political participation:
"Concerted registration and turnout efforts from Democrats likely will
enlarge Hispanic participation in a few key states, especially
Southwestern states like Arizona and Nevada, but unless something
changes, Gonzalez predicts, “We won’t be turbocharged as a national
electorate.”
Why won't Hispanics be turbocharged this year?
Well, I am not a mind reader but a few things are apparent:
1) Too many broken promises. Too many "Cinco de Mayo" speeches instead of proposals to Congress. Again, Hispanics are not stupid.
2) Hispanics have been hit very hard by this recession.
Again, I am not a mind reader but the disillusionment with Pres BO is "muy grande".
So here we are and the countdown to November 6 is underway.
We can say this: 2012 won't be 2008. Pres BO can not run for reelection pretending that someone else has been president. He is stuck with a record, such as Friday's awful jobs report and a federal budget deficit 3 times bigger than Pres Bush. (10% of GDP is 3 times bigger than 3% of GDP)
So far, it looks like the country is open for a change! Let's see where we are in another 30 days.
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Tags: The election is 6 months away and Hispanic registration is down
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