Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Obama in a "funk"


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Cuba, Adios: A Young Man's Journey to Free



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Monday, November 03, 2014

The poll that could be signaling a wave


My friend Barry Casselman (The Prairie Editor) was on my show recently and reminded our listeners that a wave is not visible until the last 72 hours of the election.  In other words, many pundits have been looking for the wave prematurely.

It starts as independents go one way or another, as Barry wrote:
Any kind of true wave, moderate or heavy, does not appear visible until either just before election day, or when the vote is counted. 
Waves are almost always late-breaking.
He explained it further:
A true “wave,” in my opinion, would require many more undecided voters to vote Republican, and many Democrats to stay home.
A true wave would produce a net gain of 8-10 Republican senators, 11-15 Republican house members, and close to a draw in net new governors.
A “tsunami,” on the other hand, would bring in 11-15 new GOP senators, 16-25 new GOP house members, and the surprise of some net gains in GOP governors.
On Sunday, a new poll from Iowa shook up the pundits.  It puts Ms. Ernst, the GOP candidate, up by 7.  If this poll is correct, and The Des Moines Register is a serious source, then we may have felt the first "winds" of a major wave.  

I would add that the latest poll shows that GOP candidates in Kentucky and Georgia have built leads over their opponents.  Mr Cassidy in Louisiana is also running ahead of Senator Landreiu in their expected runoff contest next month.

The next sign of a wave will happen on election night in New Hampshire and North Carolina.  Watch for an early projection for Mr. Brown in NH or Mr. Tillis in NC.  The wave will move across the "fruited plains" quickly and ferociously after that.

I am not sure if there is a wave, but I feel a wind blowing.  

P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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Senator Harkin and the "woman" double standard


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All signs point to a GOP takeover of the US Senate


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THE WEEK IN REVIEW WITH BILL KATZ OF URGENT AGENDA


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Sunday, November 02, 2014

Another crisis on the eve of a presidential election

As voters get ready to vote on Tuesday, we are reminded of another election and a war and region deteriorating very quickly:
One year after the overthrow and assassination of President Ngo Dinh Diem, the situation in South Vietnam is deteriorating in both the military and political spheres.    
Following two months of extreme political turmoil, the High National Council confirmed the appointment of Tran Van Huong as South Vietnam's premier. Though he promised to wage total war against the communists while separating religion and politics, he proved to be only the latest in a line of ineffectual leaders that attempted to fill the void left by Diem's death.  
The military situation was no better. On this date, Viet Cong raiders infiltrated the U.S. air base at Bien Hoa, 12 miles north of Saigon, and launched a heavy mortar attack that caught the U.S. and South Vietnamese off guard. Before the Viet Cong withdrew, they killed five U.S. servicemen and two South Vietnamese soldiers, wounded 76, destroyed two B-57 bombers, and damaged another 20 U.S. and South Vietnamese aircraft. A lengthy search of the area around Bien Hoa failed to locate any of the Viet Cong. Word of the attack reached Washington early in the morning, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff called for "a prompt and strong response" against North Vietnam. Ambassador Maxwell Taylor called for a more limited response, but also advocated bombing in retaliation. President Lyndon Johnson, concerned with the presidential election that was only 48 hours away, decided to do nothing except order the immediate replacement of destroyed and damaged planes.
Yes, I understand that 2014 is a midterm and 1964 a presidential election. 
Nevertheless, the similarity is scary.

 First, President LBJ downplayed Vietnam, hoping that it would go away.  It didn't, and his presidency was consumed by it.

 Second, President LBJ never addressed the issue with the U.S. public and used the Gulf of Tonkin war resolution to escalate a war.  I don't think that the aforementioned resolution was about sending 500,000 to a land war!

 Let's hope that it turns out different this time.
President Obama downplayed the threat and the use of ground troops, or much the same thing that President LBJ said during the 1964 campaign.

 Don't be surprised if President Obama is consumed in a war that he never saw coming and blows up the Democratic Party.

 I'd like to be wrong, but it is scary.

 P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

Check Out Politics Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Silvio Canto Jr on BlogTalkRadio

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ELECTION PREDICTIONS AND A FEW OTHER THOUGHTS


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Saturday, November 01, 2014

I'm confused. What poll do you believe?


Let me tell you this about election day:

 1) AG Abbott will be elected governor of Texas, but I don't know if it's by 10 or 20 points.

 2) We will have surprises on Tuesday because the polls are so confusing.

 Yesterday, I saw two stories about the early vote.  According to Nate Cohen at The New York Times, the early voting is favoring Democrats in several states, including Colorado.  At the same time, the AP is reporting that early voting favors the GOP in Colorado.

 Who is right?  Who is wrong?  I'm confused.

 Over in New Hampshire, one poll had Senator Shaheen up 7 and another one showed a tie with former Senator Brown.  Are these pollsters calling voters in the same state?

 Again in Colorado, one poll had incumbent Senator Udall at 39% and the other at 44%.  Same question as before: are they calling voters in the same state?

 I'm not knocking pollsters.  They do their best to get it right and often do.  My point is that we've developed this dependence on pollsters rather than old-fashioned journalists who walk the streets, talking to real people.  Sadly, our news coverage is relying too heavily on polls based on questionable samples.  After all, how many of you answer your land line anymore?  How many even have land lines?

 My guess is that the GOP will do well on Tuesday, or somewhere between six and seven pickups.  They include Alaska, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, and Louisiana.  North Carolina is the seventh, if Mr. Tillis can win there.  I'm also assuming that the GOP will hold on to Georgia and Kansas.  I will wait for the results in Colorado and Iowa.

 My conclusion is not just poll-driven.  It's based on a gut feeling that the country wants a change.  In other words, they can't change the president, but they are hoping that election will send a message.

 My warning to the GOP is that this is an anti-incumbent election, and voters do not want to change office space in the U.S. Senate building for the heck of it.   

 In the end, I hope that future Majority Leader McConnell allows his fellow senators to vote on issues that concern the country.  For example, repeal Obamacare and force President Obama to veto it.  Ditto on tax reform, school choice, and other issues that matter to real people.  Get active and pass legislation, and force Democrats to vote one way or another.

 P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.
Check Out Politics Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Silvio Canto Jr on BlogTalkRadio


Tags: Polls and 2014  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
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A LOOK AT TUESDAY'S ELECTION WITH BARRY CASSELMAN.


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