Sunday, January 12, 2020

What will the House of Representatives look like in 2021?

Image result for us house images
Impeachment and now Iran are consuming public opinion and media coverage.  However, the biggest story of 2020 may be the U.S. House elections.
Will the Democrats hold their small majority, or will the GOP take it back?
My sense today is that the GOP is back in the game, as Barry Casselman wrote over the weekend:
In the U.S. house, the Democrats were heavily favored to keep control even if President Trump were re-elected, but the impeachment activity seems to be changing that. Although the media is making the large number of GOP incumbents retiring a big story, most of those are in safe Republican districts, Perhaps the bigger story is the one being told by former Speaker Newt Gingrich who, in a recent column, cited the record number of GOP congressional candidates, including women and minorities, already running in 2020. With more than 30 seats won in 2018 by Democrats in districts carried by Mr. Trump in 2016, the current backlash to the impeachment, and the strong recruitment of GOP challengers, the early odds favoring the Democrats, Mr. Gingrich contends, are diminishing.
Time will tell, and there is plenty of time for things to go one way or another.
My sense is that the Democrat leadership blew it with impeachment.
Pelosi & Co. caved in to a left-wing base that makes noise but had nothing to do with their having a majority.  The much publicized Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others won’t be invited to campaign in all of those competitive districts in 2020.
The second reason for optimism is that President Trump will be on the ticket.  Also, he seems very interested in getting the House back to advance his agenda in a second term.
Yes, it’s early, but I am feeling good about returning Mrs. Pelosi to the minority leader position.
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