At the same time, we do know that "reelections" are always about the incumbent, as Barry Casselman pointed out in his fine article. Therefore, it does matter a great deal that Pres BO is always under 50% in these polls.
As of today, Pres BO is up 45-43 on Rasmussen and in a 47-47 tie on the Gallup. Romney and Obama are within the margin of error in every poll and Obama is always under 50%.
These numbers are not good for an incumbent. Just ask any incumbent who went down on election day. It's hard to get those "undecideds" back when they don't support you today.
The "under-50%" number is alarming because Pres BO has a few things to be happy about.
First, Pres BO has enjoyed sitting in the sidelines as the GOP beat up each other. I understand primary politics but it's never good to see a family feud and our family has been "feuding" a lot lately.
First, Pres BO has enjoyed sitting in the sidelines as the GOP beat up each other. I understand primary politics but it's never good to see a family feud and our family has been "feuding" a lot lately.
Second, Pres BO has not gained much from the drop in unemployment. The number has gone down 3 months in a row but most Americans are still very skeptical about the US economy.
Will Pres BO be reelected? I don't know today. However, we can say that the public is still thinking about it. In other words, "the jury is still out" and that should scare the heck out of the White House.
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