Thursday, February 05, 2015

The problem with 'demographics' is that voters want results

Remember the one about demographics?  

 Remember how Democrats were going to naturally take over government from coast to coast because of inevitable "demographics."

 Well, that demographics prediction looks a bit like a Twilight Zone in Spanish these days.

 The problem with predictions is that things change, or the assumptions do not turn out to be true as Mr Mann, my 8th grade social studies teacher, used to say.

 We definitely recommend Sean Trende's post to all of those pundits who bet their lunch money on the demographics theory:
"The problem was twofold. 
First, in two-party systems, the other party always adapts: It figures out ways to counteract winning messages (e.g., Cory Gardner embracing over-the-counter birth control in Colorado), or utilizes emerging issues to help steal groups from the other coalition. Because governing inherently involves picking winners and losers, there are almost always groups for the out-party to steal. 
Second, progressive centrism was always going to be difficult to maintain as a dominant ideology."
There is another problem that the authors of the "inevitable demographics theory" did not consider;  performance!    

 People want parties to perform, especially if they give you the votes to win the election.

In 2008, and to a lesser extent in 2012, Hispanics voted for candidate Obama because he promised to do something about immigration.   The large Hispanic vote also gave Mr Obama 60 votes in the US Senate and a large majority in the House in 2008. Nevertheless, President Obama did not deliver and that turned off many Hispanics in 2014.

 Another example is young people, who gleefully screamed "yes we can" and now have to hear their their parents say "yes we can" take you back home because you can't find work.

 Yes, there will be more Hispanics voting in the future. However, there is no guarantee that they will vote Democrat, especially if Democrats do not improve their lives.

 So it's time to update "the demographics" theory with the Obama addendum or the presidency that soured so many of "the demos."

P.S. You can hear my show ( CantoTalk ) or follow me on Twitter .
Tags: Demographics and elections  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

Venezuela, Argentina, US-Cuba talks & more



Tags: Venezuela, Argentina, US-Cuba talks, Brazil  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

Wednesday, February 04, 2015

The Super Bowl plus a look at DFW sports (Mavericks, Stars & Rangers)



Tags: DFW sports, Dallas Cowboys, Dallas Stars, Dallas Mavericks, Texas Rangers, Super Bowl 49 To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

What exactly did we talk to Cuba about for 18 months?

U.S.-Cuba talks are getting more and more interesting. 

 The Castro regime wants Guantanamo back, essentially the naval base, since the city of Guantanamo has always been part of Cuba, compensation for the U.S. embargo, and the cancellation of Radio & TV Marti.   

 It won't happen.  

 Another unresolved issue is the status of U.S. nationals living in Cuba, i.e. fugitives of U.S. law. We've all heard about Joanne Chesimard, who killed a police officer in New Jersey and was granted asylum in the island.

 However, there are others, and apparently we don't have a clue or didn't bother to ask the Castro regime for a list. The Castro regime should have a pretty good idea of who they are  because they had to issue some kind of residency status to them. I don't believe that they've been living as illegal immigrants in the island.

The Sun Sentinel has been reporting on this for a year and these are their latest findings:
"The Jan. 23 letter Rubio and the two other senators sent to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, requesting a list of all fugitives the FBI believes are living in Cuba, notes "there is little definitive information about their cases available publicly."
The senators wrote that there are longtime murderers and airplane hijackers in Cuba, but also "numerous others guilty of lesser but still important crimes, including money laundering and health care fraud."
For years, members of Congress have accused Cuba of harboring 70 to 80 fugitives, most of whom fled there decades ago
More recently, the FBI in Miami has compiled a spreadsheet showing 20 Medicare fugitives thought to be hiding in Cuba."
How can we reestablish diplomatic relations with a country harboring fugitives of U.S. law?   

 Furthermore, how did we sit with Cuba for 18 months and not settle some of these issues?

 It sure looks like President Obama was more interested in making the announcement than doing all of the background work necessary to settle disputes with Cuba. On the other hand, doesn't that sound like the way that the Obama administration does business?

 P.S. You can hear my show:  CantoTalk or follow me on Twitter.


Check Out Politics Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Silvio Canto Jr on BlogTalkRadio
Tags: Cuba 2015, US law fugitives To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

The latest on the US-Cuba talks with Jorge Ponce


CLICK TO LISTEN:

The latest on the US-Cuba talks with Jorge Ponce 02/02 by Silvio Canto Jr | Politics Podcasts



Tags: US-Cuba talks 2015 To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

Monday, February 02, 2015

Another Brokered GOP Convention?

(MY NEW AMERICAN THINKER POST)
On this day in 1968, former VP Nixon announced that he was a candidate for president. It came at the start of the the Tet Offensive, the battle that we won but the media reported we didn't.

On this day in 2015, we get another article about a "brokered convention". It didn't happen in 2008 or 2012 and it won't in 2016 but it is a heck of story for those of us who sleep and eat politics.

According to Sean Trende, a very good pundit, the GOP field is so deep that it could happen:
"I think the Republican Party really could wind up with a brokered convention -- that is, a race where no candidate receives a majority of the delegates by the end of voting.
In fact, it might well be the most likely outcome, if only because no particular outcome is particularly probable."
It could happen but I don't see it.

First, a brokered convention will not unite the party. It will get ugly on the floor, a bit like the Reagan-Ford struggle of 1976. Yes, President Ford won but a lot of the Reagan people took off the fall and did not work hard for him.

Second, who is going to unite all of these splintered groups anyway? My guess is that a "brokered convention" will turn into an establishment vs Tea Party shouting match. It may be fun for bloggers and reporters but it will hurt whoever gets the nomination.

Yes, a "brokered convention" could happen and it would be historic. I'm hoping that it doesn't because the nominee will be bleeding before the general campaign.Finally, one of these guys, and my money is on Gov. Scott Walker today, will break out and start winning delegates. He will eventually drive candidates out of the race because the money will dry up.

One last thought: I do think that a "brokered convention" is likely on the Democrat side if Hillary Clinton does not run. The nomination would probably go to VP Biden but there are going to be a lot of gloomy faces at the convention.

P.S. You can hear my show: CantoTalk  or  follow me on Twitter  .    We discussed the 2016 campaign on Sunday's show:
Check Out Politics Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Silvio Canto Jr on BlogTalkRadio




Tags: 2016 GOP convention  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

The week in review with Bill Katz of Urgent Agenda.



Tags: Iran, ISIS, Obama, Romney. GOP, US economy,  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

Sunday, February 01, 2015

In defense of 'white and privileged' Cuban‐Americans

(MY AMERICAN THINKER POST)

 It's time to put the left on suicide watch, because they are saying and writing some rather stupid things.
The latest is Ann Louise Bardach, author and columnist.  She just wrote an article over at the NY Times (where else?) about Cuban Americans:
Most Americans are under the impression that the Republican Party is unequivocally opposed to amnesty for immigrants. In fact, it has long backed a blanket amnesty — but only for Cubans. For every other hopeful immigrant, the party’s message has been clear: “Deportations, deportations, deportations,” to quote Jorge Ramos, the Walter Cronkite of Spanish-language television. Why?
One answer is that the 2.1 million Cuban-Americans have been, until quite recently, a rock-solid Republican constituency. There is also a race and class issue. Unlike most of Central and Latin America, Cuba does not have a distinct indigenous population (the Spanish slaughtered almost all of the native Indians of the island). Hence those fleeing the Castro regime in the 1960s and ’70s were almost entirely white, educated and middle or upper class.
I guess that Ms Bardach is saying that we Cubans are too white and "GOPish."  This is apparently why white GOP members of Congress give Cuban Americans special immigration consideration. 

 As I recall, those measures were passed under the Kennedy and Johnson administrations.  They also had bipartisan support. 

 Did Ms. Bardach miss the Cold War? the Missile Crisis? Cuban troops fighting wars in Africa? a North Korean ship stopped in Panama after leaving Cuba with weapons in violation of U.N. agreements? Cuba on U.S. State Department list of terrorist nations?

 Yes, Cubans were treated differently because we were leaving a communist dictatorship.  That's not the case for other Latin American countries.  We were treated like political refugees rather than those who come here for work.  (I'm not saying anything critical about those who want to come here to work.  I'm simply explaining that our situation was different, and seen differently by the U.S. Congress.)

 First of all, I'm sure that my parents, and so many like them, will be shocked to learn that they were privileged.  My father, like so many others, worked two jobs, including a night job as a bellboy at a hotel.  My late uncle picked tomatoes in Florida.  I'm talking about men who had professional careers in Cuba.

 The US simply gave us an opportunity, and my parents took it.  That's not privilege!  That's America!

 Second, there is a reason why so many Cubans, like my parents, were educated and middle-class.  The answer is the pre-Castro Cuban economy that Ms. Bardach does not know a darn thing about.  Maybe Ms. Bardach should stop learning Cuban history from the Castro regime or The Godfather II.  (Great movie, but very inaccurate Cuban history.)

 Before Castro destroyed the Cuban economy with "hope and change," the island enjoyed a lot of prosperity, or the kind of economy that would produce middle-class and educated people who would leave communism if they could.  
Let's check out Cuba before Castro:
In the 1950's Cuba was, socially and economically, a relatively advanced country, certainly by Latin American standards and, in some areas, by world standards.
  • Cuba's infant mortality rate was the best in Latin America -- and the 13th lowest in the world.
  • Cuba also had an excellent educational system and impressive literacy rates in the 1950's.
  • Pre-Castro Cuba ranked third in Latin America in per capita food consumption.
  • Cuba ranked first in Latin America and fifth in the world in television sets per capita.
  • Pre-Castro Cuba had 58 daily newspapers of differing political hues and ranked eighth in the world in number of radio stations.  
Health
  • Cuba's infant mortality rate of 32 per 1,000 live births in 1957 was the lowest in Latin America and the 13th lowest in the world, according to UN data. Cuba ranked ahead of France, Belgium, West Germany, Japan, Austria, Italy, and Spain.
  • In 1955, life expectancy in Cuba was among the highest at 63 years of age; compared to 52 in other Latin American countries, 43 in Asia, and 37 in Africa.
  • In terms of physicians and dentists per capita, Cuba in 1957 ranked third in Latin America, behind only Uruguay and Argentina -- both of which were more advanced than the United States in this measure. Cuba's 128 physicians and dentists per 100,000 people in 1957 was the same as the Netherlands, and ahead of the United Kingdom (122 per 100,000 people) and Finland.
Education
Cuba has been among the most literate countries in Latin America since well before the Castro revolution, when it ranked fourth.
So why are so many of our Cuban parents educated?  Maybe it's because they came from a country with high levels of education!

 We've never said that pre-Castro Cuba was perfect.  We just remind you that people leaving in rafts was not a part of that Cuba that my parents grew up in. 
It is true that most of the Cubans who left were white.  The answer to that is that 64% of Cubans are white, according to the CIA Country Report. 

It should not come as a shock to anyone familiar with Cuban history that there are so many white Cubans, or people like me whose grandparents settled on the island.  Cuba benefited from large numbers of Spanish and other European immigrants, who came to the island in the 19th and 20th centuries, as related by Dr. Carlos Eire: 
Between 1900 and 1930, the first three decades of Cuban independence, about one million immigrants flooded into the island, mostly European, and mostly northern Spaniards. 
This population tsunami also included Asians, Levantines, and Jews. 
These immigrants doubled the population of the island and changed its complexion, literally. Tens of thousands of immigrants continued to flow into Cuba every year after that, up to 1958. Immigration from the U.S. was comparatively slight, but in 1958 there were more Americans living in Cuba than Cubans in the U.S.A. Emigration from Cuba was minimal during this half century.
By the way, it was a lot of those Americans living in Cuba who had their properties and investments confiscated by the communists.  They are still waiting for compensation! 

 To be fair, it may be time to revise the policy that allows Cubans to have special consideration.  However, Ms. Bardach would get more support by making her case rather than relying on that tired race card that worked so miserably for the Democrats in 2014.

 Memo to Ms. Bardach:  Drop the race card.  It's boring – really old and boring!

 P.S. You can hear my show, CantoTalk, or follow me on Twitter.

Tags: Cuban Americans  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

The Patriots win and Brady gets his 4th ring


Super Bowl 49 features two of the best teams in the NFL.   Unfortunately, I am not a big fan of either one.    

 The Patriots are in the NFC East and we don't play that division  much.  

 The Seahawks are in the NFC but we see them every few years.  Again, I am not passionate about either team.

 I will pick New England for one reason:  I'd like to see Tom Brady win his 4th ring and join that elite club of Bradshaw and Montana.  

 Go Patriots.   Most of all, let's have a good game!

 We discussed the game on Saturday's show with Dave Michaels:
Check Out Politics Podcasts at Blog Talk Radio with Silvio Canto Jr on BlogTalkRadio



Tags: New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->

A look at New England vs Seattle......Super Bowl.



Tags: Super Bowl 49  To share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the My View by Silvio Canto, Jr. Thanks!
Posted by Post Link --->
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)