Keep an eye on the elections in El Salvador

(My new American Thinker post)

Not long ago, Central America was a big part of our foreign policy discussion in the US. 

Remember the contras? Noriega and the Panama invasion?  El Salvador civil war?

We don't have those problems anymore and we've spent a lot of time looking at Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil and so on.  Nevertheless, the region faces violence and economic challenges.   It is also a source of illegal immigration to the US.

Last Sunday, the left won the first round of the El Salvador election, as reported in The NY Times:

"In El Salvador, a divided right may have benefited the front-runner of the left-leaning Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, known as the F.M.L.N., which appeared in good position to hold on to the presidency. It won the office for the first time in 2009, after a string of losses to conservatives following peace accords in 1992 ended one of the bloodiest civil wars in the Americas. The F.M.L.N. candidate, Salvador Sánchez Cerén, a former guerrilla commander and the vice president, got 49 percent of the vote, but not the majority needed to avoid a March 9 runoff, according to preliminary results."

The right should do better in the 2nd round because many of the 3rd party votes are more likely to go right then left.  At the same time, the left goes to the "runoff" with 49% of the vote in the first round.  As they say, I'd rather go to the runoff with 49% in the first round than 39%!

No matter who wins, the people are not happy with the political class because of a sluggish economy and rampant gang violence.The winner of the election will have a very brief honeymoon and face citizens who want quick results. It won't be easy governing El Salvador.

Central America has come a long way from "contras" and "the civil war" of the early 1980s in El Salvador.  Unfortunately, they face a new set of problems, such as mindless gang violence and insecurity.  

And let's not forget that Central America is a source of illegal immigration to the US. It's in our interest to have jobs and economic growth in the region. 

P. S. You can hear my chat with Fausta Wertz (Fausta's Blog) and Miguel Portillo-Cuadras from El Salvador & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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Gov Christie will survive because his enemies are just plain 'loco'

(My new American Thinker post)

Before I start, let me state that I have not spent anytime looking at the 2016 GOP or Democrat hopefuls. 

It is way too early to do that, no matter how much money "The Clinton '16" machine collects. I remind you that Hillary Clinton will be 70 in 2016 and look every bit of it.  More importantly, she will have to defend the Obama record, from the ACA to the Middle East. It won't be easy unless there is a 180-degree change in our political environment.

Last, but not least, 1988 was the last time that a party won 3 in a row, i.e. Bush beat Dukakis. I don't know what 2016 will look like but my guess is that the Obama administration will not be as popular as Reagan was in '88!

The conventional wisdom after November was that Christie was in.The conventional wisdom last weekend was that he he would resign because The NY Times had found "the smoking gun." 

Today, "the conventional wisdom" is that The NY Times jumped the gun.  In fact, it had to correct the story and admit that the gun had not so much  smoke, as reported by Mr Taranto of the WSJ:

"An article on Saturday about the contention of David Wildstein, a former Port Authority official, that "evidence exists" that Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey knew about the closing of lanes on the George Washington Bridge as it was happening misidentified, at one point, the person for whom a lawyer wrote a letter to a panel investigating the closings. The letter was written for Bill Stepien by Kevin H. Marino, his lawyer; it was not written for Mr. Marino."

Wonder who is going to lose their job at The NY Tines?

From day 1 of this "bridge story," I sensed a "feeding frenzy" on the part of reporters. 

Some of the "frenzy" was typical in the 24/7 news cycle.  It happens.

A big part of it was liberals trying to get Christie because they bought into some poll that projected the governor beating Hillary Clinton.  MSNBC, in particular, went into "Def-Con 100" and had the governor convicted and hung from the same bridge.

Yes, Governor Christie is wounded and not flying so high. However, he will survive and charge ahead because his enemies can not control their hatred of the GOP or devotion to seeing Hillary Clinton become president. 

P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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Latin America leaders in Cuba: 'Abrazo si, dinero no' ('A hug yes, money no')

(My new American Thinker post)

My Cuban American friends are furious about Latin American leaders visiting Cuba and showing so much praise for the aging Fidel Castro..  (Check out the latest from Alberto De La Cruz at Babalu)

I agree with all of my friends in Miami, and Carlos Puig in Mexico, that this whole thing smells bad. It's a shame to see a self proclaimed reformer, like President Pena-Nieto, shaking hands with the longest running dictatorship in Latin America. (I understand President Fernandez of Argentina, who wouldn't mind hiding in Cuba given the collapse of Argentina's economy.)

Also, dissidents were not allowed to come anywhere near the meetings and some were locked up during the events.

At the same time, don't overlook the real reason for the picture and the handshake.

Let me speak about Mexico, a country that I am very familiar with.

After college, I worked in Mexico for a US company for several years.   I was active in local chambers of commerce and had a chance to meet some business and political leaders.   

We had chats about Cuba and Mexico very often.  I got hot many times but my Mexican hosts would always tell me to look behind the curtain. 

They taught me this about Mexico and Cuba:  Do not take Mexican presidents very seriously when they shake hands or hug "el commandante," as President Lopez-Portillo used to say.

It's all a big farce intended to throw a few crumbs to the very powerful and loud Mexican left.

Over the last 20 years, Mexican presidents have made the left very unhappy. 

First, there is NAFTA, an agreement that the left believes killed small Mexican businesses and filled stores with foreign goods.  

Second, there is Plan Merida, a deal negotiated between President Bush and President Calderon to provide US arms to fight the cartel war.    (The left really hates this one)  

Don't forget that President Pena-Nieto has just tackled two of the left's scared cows, energy reforms (PEMEX) and the teachers' union.

The left is furious with President Pena-Nieto and has every desire to destroy his presidency. They are staging rallies, causing traffic jams and so on.  Have you taken a flight to Mexico City lately?  Have you seen the street rallies?  Have you been tied in an endless traffic jam?

I am not justifying President Pena-Nieto's hypocrisy, or "reforma para todos menos Cuba."   (Reform for all except Cuba)

It makes me as angry as it makes you!

At the same time, he has to worry about Mexico not Cubans.  That's the blunt reality.

Fidel or Raul Castro got a handshake and a hug but NOT "the credit" that they desperately need.

That's the bottom line of President Pena-Nieto's visit:  "Un abrazo pero no un centavo"!  ("A hug but not one cent")

My guess is that Fidel would have preferred a line of credit rather than another Mexican president using him for domestic reasons. The Castro dictatorship needs "cash" not more Mexican lefties singing the praises of the revolution.  

P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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A word about Jesus Prieto and that generation of Cuban men

(My new Babalu post)

Last May, I had the pleasure of participating in the Babalu booth at Cuba Nostalgia.

It gave me the opportunity to meet Mr Prieto and share a few stories about Texas, Cuba and some Alvarez-Guedes jokes.

He was a delightful man.  Mr & Mrs Prieto reminded me so much of my parents.

A few minutes ago, I spoke with Valentin Prieto to share my personal condolences for Mr Prieto's death.

Time is passing by and our "viejos" sadly move on.  It is the unfortunate reality of the clock.  It does not stop ticking.

It was men like Mr Prieto, and so many of our fathers, who set foot on this land many years ago.

They worked hard, often doing whatever job came long.    My father was a belt man at a hotel.  My uncle picked tomatoes for a while.

They taught us about the work ethic, personal responsibility and provided so that we could fulfill our dreams.

RIP Mr Prieto.  You were "the greatest generation" and we owe everything to you and so many men like you.

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President Obama's vulnerabilities were there for everyone to see in the pre-game interview

(My new American Thinker post)

The big O'Reilly vs Obama show was a lot better than the game.  It was a 7-minute chat that showed just how vulnerable President Obama is on most of these issues.
On Obama Care, President Obama threw "the 3 million have signed up so far" line. 
Unfortunately, there is no record that 3 million people have paid their first premium, as reported by CBS:

"The Washington Post's Glenn Kessler points out that there's no way to tell how many of the 3 million people who signed up for the federal health care exchanges have paid a premium for their health insurance, and the Associated Press notes that there's no way to tell how many of those people previously held private insurance coverage before signing up for new insurance on HealthCare.gov. "

On Benghazi, President Obama could not explain why the administration pushed a "video story" for two weeks.
On the IRS, President Obama could not answer a direct question again.
President Obama's weakest moment was blaming Fox News for Benghazi scandal, as reported by Peter Baker of The NY Times:

"Mr. O'Reilly went on to say that Mr. Obama's detractors believe the administration tried to mislead the public about what really happened in Benghazi because it was in the middle of his re-election campaign.   
"They believe it because folks like you are telling them," Mr. Obama responded.  
"No, I'm not telling them that," Mr. O'Reilly protested."

To be fair, President Obama was cool under pressure but his vulnerabilities were there all for to see.

P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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Why are we wasting our time discussing what they say at MSNBC?

(My new American Thinker post)

Don't ask me why but my cable system does not include MSNBC.  It does have FOX, CNN and CNBC.

Trust me I'm not complaining! 

There are a few things that I figured out about MSNBC yeas ago:

1) The network lacks maturity, from stupid tweets to on the air remarks about Romney's grandchild.  MSNBC is a mess, as reported by The NY Post:

"In the past two months alone, three MSNBC anchors - Martin Bashir, Alec Baldwin and Melissa Harris-Perry - experienced damaging cases of foot-in-mouth syndrome and had to apologize.  
Two - Bashir and Baldwin - lost their jobs."

2) Most people see MSNBC as opinion rather than news:

"In the Pew Research sample, two of the three major cable news channels had a fairly even distribution of airtime devoted to opinion and to newsgathering. CNN was the only one to feature more reporting (54%) than opinion (46%) overall. At the Fox News Channel, the split leaned toward moderately more opinion (55%) than reporting (45%).   
On MSNBC, however, the mix of news and commentary skewed heavily in one direction. Fully 85% of the channel's airtime in the period studied was devoted to opinion. Only 15% of its programming was filled with reporting.  And the time of day really didn't matter. The percentage of MSNBC airtime devoted to opinion was more than 80% in the morning (6-10 a.m.), mid-day (12-3 p.m.) and evening (6-10 p.m.)"

And, we give them a lot of attention every time that we repeat what they say! 

Stop listening and wasting our time.  They don't deserve our attention or anger!

P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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“La realidad” has landed in Buenos Aires!

(My new Babalu post)

"La realidad" has finally arrived in Argentina.

My dad and I were having one of those "father-son chats" many years ago. He said one of the most profound things that I've ever heard. He told me that reality always has the last word.

My father was not speaking about Argentina but reality is clearly having the last word down there.  

It is really tough, and getting worse, according to news reports:

""When I went to buy it, the price had gone up 25% since when I checked prices last week," she complained outside the Alto Palermo shopping mall.
"The same thing just happened to me at the pharmacy where I went to buy the medicine my husband takes: the price was up 20%."
The economic panic leading to price mark-ups of this kind began in mid-January, whenArgentina's central bank reserves dipped below $30bn, forcing the government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to drop its policy of injecting large quantities of dollars into the exchange market to shore up the overvalued peso.
The sudden dollar scarcity on Argentina's exchange market sent the peso's official value crashing to eight pesos to the dollar, while the "blue" illegal rate shot up to nearly 13 pesos.
Retailers immediately marked up their prices to reflect the new reality. In some cases, items were pulled en masse from the shelves, as retailers pondered how much to mark up their goods."

In the past, President Cristina Fernandez, who replaced her husband Nestor a few years ago, has demonized the opposition and promised more "free stuff" to voters.

That was then and this is now.

Reality does not allow her to play that "tango" anymore.

Argentina is going to enter a very serious crisis and the public is in for a very uncomfortable ride.   We will likely see a default of Argentina's foreign debt, as Fausta Wertz has been saying.

There are two options for Argentina.

First, they can look to Chile, bite the bullet and better days will come. Argentina has the potential for a huge comeback but they need a political class that looks to Chile not Cuba for economic ideas.

Second, they can "double down" on class warfare and implode.  Yes implode like "implode"!

"Don't cry for me Argentina" should be changed to "Don't vote for such stupid leaders Argentina".

P. S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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My prediction: Denver 31, Seattle 10

It's Super Bowl Sunday and time to make a prediction:   

Denver 31, Seattle 10

Peyton will win his 2nd ring.     My second prediction is that we will see a lot of Russell Wilson in future games.   He is a QB with a lot of potential.

Here is this week's show with Dave Michaels:

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Mr President: Take the pen and make Keystone a reality

(My new American Thinker post)

President Obama wants to use the phone and pen. Let me give him a couple of suggestions:

1) Call Speaker Boehner, Majority Leader Reid and Minority Leader McConnell and tell them that you will work with them to make the pipeline a reality.

2) Take that pen and sign the legislation. 

We just got a new report today that may make President Obama's decision a little easier, according to USA Today:

"The release of the review now triggers a 90-day federal process for determining if the project is in the nation's interest, and adds a fresh dimension to the debate over the pipeline.    
With the release of the final environmental impact study, President Obama - who previously said that climate impact would be "absolutely critical" to his decision on Keystone - should now back the project that would bring oil from the tar sands of northwest Canada to the Gulf of Mexico, supporters of the controversial pipeline say."

President Obama should use the report to defend the pipeline against his base.  The pipeline will create jobs and that's another bit of news that the US economy needs to hear! 

So let's go and pass something big on a bipartisan basis!

P. S. You can hear my chat with Brian Lloyd French, Canadian author & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.

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Brian Lloyd French talks about his new book "Tintamarre"

We spoke with Brian Lloyd French, author of "Tintamarre":

"Mathilde and Acquila Girouard live a pastoral life with their three children on the shores of the Bay of Fundy.
They have a small herd of cows and sheep and a few pigs and supplement the food they grow with the bounty of the bay and the geese in the air.
All in all, though life is hard, they live in paradise.
Until events thousands of miles away change everything...
Suddenly they are in the middle of a battleground.
The English and French are in a struggle to control the New World and take its resources. And the little village of Beaubassin was exactly at the crossroads and the cross hairs of the coming war.
Mati and 'Quila are pulled in both directions. 
Their priest is a fierce defender of the French presence and his Church and would break all the rules to get his way; even arrange mass slaughters.
At first, the English want the Acadians to stay and continue to grow food and help feed the burgeoning population in New England. But then they get tired of the challenges and look for a final solution.
The Girouards are stuck in the middle.
The way they live, what they have built, even their lives, are at risk.
They need to risk everything to keep anything.
Tintamarre! follows the Girouards and their fellow villagers across the River Mesagoueche, through the Siege of Beausejour and the tragedy of the Expulsion. 
Will they lose each other in the turmoil and survive a terrifying voyage and find a new home in the southern territories?
Or will they be one more statistic of the hundreds of Acadians who died in this terrible historic event."

You can buy the book here!

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Here is the show:

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