We all remember the polls that had Mrs. Clinton winning in 2016.
What about the two Alabama polls the day before the election? One poll had Mr. Jones up by 10 and the other Mr. Moore up by 9!
The latest poll I read shows that the blue wave may not be forming after all. This is from The Hill:
An NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll found that when voters were asked which party’s candidate they’d more likely vote for in their district, 46 percent of registered voters said Democrats, while 40 percent went with Republicans. Nine percent are undecided.That shows a sizable decline from December polling, which found Democrats leading by 13 points on generic ballot polling.Thursday’s poll found more welcome news for Republicans among registered voters who identify as independents. Among those voters, Republicans led by 2 points, with 38 percent of those voters saying they’d vote for the GOP candidate, while 36 percent said the Democratic candidate. In December, polling found that Democrats were leading among independent voters by 11 points.The RealClearPolitics polling average for 2018 generic ballot polling remains in the double-digits for Democrats, with a 10.5-point lead.But Thursday’s poll has been consistent with the three most recent generic ballot surveys, showing Democrats up by 5 or 6 points.
Very interesting, indeed.
We will wait for further developments but let me add this.
1. A single-digit lead is within shouting distance, specially for incumbents.
2. The double-digit leads were probably unrealistic. Besides that, we don’t vote for the House on a national basis.
So let’s wait for more numbers and the stories that dominate the news over the next few months.
As of mid-January, I don’t think anyone has a clue about 2018.
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