A post from July 2006:
Here it goes. It's time to put my money where my mouth is. It's time to bet on the horses.
Calderon will win.
Bu 11pm tonight, political analysts will be talking about the two Mexican nations. The 2006 election will remind many of us of those US electoral maps from 2000 and 2004.
Calderon will win because he will sweep the north and the middle class. AMLO will win the south but it won't be enough to win. Also, enough conservative PRI-istas will switch to give Calderon the votes to cross the line.
Calderon will have ideological soulmates in Pres. Bush and Canada's new conservative PM Harper. At the end of the day, Mexico needs to be integrated further into the North American economy.
It won't be easy. AMLO won't go down quietly. Mexico will be very polarized on a regional basis. AMLO will urge his voters to march and claim fraud.
The bottom line is this: say hello to Presidente Felipe Calderon.
