No matter who wins, the country is deeply divided and governing won't be easy.
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Former President Jair Bolsonaro must have enjoyed watching the election results on Sunday. It was a big night for the family. Let's check out the results:
The Bolsonaro clan claimed victory in every race they contested in Brazil on Sunday, as Flavio Bolsonaro surpassed President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a first-round vote and several other family members won seats in Congress.
The 45-year-old senator was chosen by his father to continue the family's political project after Bolsonaro senior was convicted of coup-plotting and barred from running for office until 2030.
Other members of the dynasty surfed a right-wing wave that made Bolsonaro's Liberal Party the largest force in the Senate— securing 19 of 54 Senate seats up for grabs — but it fell short of an outright majority.
We will wait for the runoff later this month, but most observers believe that the Bolsonaro sweep will be complete when the next vote is taken.
Beyond the family drama, there are some real issues driving this election. First, a backdrop of corruption scandals, deep political polarization, and growing voter "Lula" fatigue. Second, does Brazil join the rest of Latin America moving to the right, from Chile to Colombia to El Salvador? Bolsonaro wants to move Brazil closer to the US, and Lula ran against Trump.
The two men also see the world differently:
Two days after Lula's UN speech, Brazilian diplomats joined representatives of several countries in walking out as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began his address, amid Lula's sharpening criticism of Israel's conduct in Gaza. Flávio Bolsonaro has taken a markedly different approach, cultivating ties with Netanyahu, Trump and other leaders Lula has clashed with. When Flávio launched his campaign in July, Netanyahu appeared by video to endorse him, as reported by CNN Brasil. In May, Flávio met Trump in the Oval Office to discuss organized crime, tariffs and critical minerals, then Vance and Rubio the next day.
Argentine President Javier Milei, a libertarian and longtime Bolsonaro-family ally, traveled to Brazil in July to back Flávio's campaign. He called Lula a "convict" and the government "thieving socialists," prompting Brazil to recall its ambassador to Buenos Aires. This comes as Latin America's broader political map has moved right following closely fought elections: Right-wing firebrand Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's presidential election in June, and Keiko Fujimori won Peru's runoff weeks later by roughly a tenth of a percentage point.
"A Flávio Bolsonaro victory would cement this move to the right that we've seen in so much of Latin America over the last two years," Winter said, noting that many of the region's right-leaning governments are aligned with Trump on security and drug policy.
We will wait for the runoff later this month. No matter who wins, the country is deeply divided and governing won't be easy. Bolsonaro will have a more friendly Congress, whereas Lula will face serious challenges getting anything done.
I guess the best part of the story is millions voted and the results were available the same day. Maybe California could learn something from that.
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