As you may remember, I missed the Cruz-O’Rourke election by seven points. I projected Senator Cruz by 10 points but it was three!
So what did I miss? I underestimated what $80 million can do to register voters.
Here in Texas, I saw “Beto registration” stations everywhere and got a mail piece in my mailbox daily for two weeks before election day.
We understand that he outspent Cruz 3-1. That’s a lot of money and staff!
In other words, let’s not underestimate what voter registration will do to get voters out.
So I won’t underestimate Beto this time — but do see a few challenges ahead:
First, there is really nothing to Beto. He is a telegenic man of little subtance. His voting record is that of a Pelosi clone. What position has he taken that shows independence from Democrat leadership?
Second, he will be running against a dozen Democrats who won’t hesitate to question Beto’s background. According to news reports, he is the son-in-law of a very successful land developer worth $ 500 million. How does Beto say that the Trump tax law benefitted the rich without talking about benefits to his family?
Third, what positions does Beto have? So far, there is more merchandise for sale on his website than positions.
Beto said that we face a “catastrophe” over climate change or something like that. Such a position may work at the first MSNBC debate but we’ve already seen labor unions challenge the “green deal”. Beto cannot get on the wrong side of the unions and succeed in the Democratic Party.
So don’t underestimate Beto, but don’t forget that 2020 won’t be 2018.
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.
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