We’ve been hearing a lot about the coming “blue wave”, or the Democrat tsunami that will take over the House of Representatives and maybe the Senate in 2018.
It is true that midterm elections often favor the opposition party: Reagan lost seats in 1982 and 1986; Bush in 1990, Clinton lost the House & Senate in 1994, Bush lost the House & Senate in 2006 and Obama lost the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.
So the history argument is correct. In other words, history is on the side of the opposition in mid-term elections.
So what is my friend Barry Casselman saying about this? He has been following and reporting on elections since 1972.
This is what he sees 11 months before we vote:
This tide in blue might still happen, but the genuine signs for
it are not yet present. In fact, the signs for now point the other
way. Donald Trump not only defied conventional wisdom in
2016, he has continued to do so (admittedly with not a few
political hiccups) in the eleven months since taking office.
it are not yet present. In fact, the signs for now point the other
way. Donald Trump not only defied conventional wisdom in
2016, he has continued to do so (admittedly with not a few
political hiccups) in the eleven months since taking office.
With about half a dozen senate pick-ups, and holding
Democratic gains in the house to under 10, the GOP would
break the commonplace precedent, although it has happened
before. For more than that, it would take a now-unexpected
“red wave” in 2018. A “blue wave” would bring back control
of the Congress to the Democrats.
Democratic gains in the house to under 10, the GOP would
break the commonplace precedent, although it has happened
before. For more than that, it would take a now-unexpected
“red wave” in 2018. A “blue wave” would bring back control
of the Congress to the Democrats.
It is too early to tell the color of the approaching wave. All we
can see now is the white of the distant breaking surf.
can see now is the white of the distant breaking surf.
But a wave is coming — in one color or another.
So we will sit back and watch the events. Nevertheless, don’t buy into “waves” this early.
P.S. You can listen to Silvio Canto’s show (Canto Talk) and follow him on Twitter.
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