Before I get a million messages from Trump’s supporters saying that I’m part of the establishment or trying to steal his nomination, let me say this: Trump will be the nominee if he gets 1,237 delegates on the first or any other ballot.
Beyond that, let me assure his very passionate supporters that I will support him in November.
Also, I am not part of any conspiracy nor did Governor Romney suggest that I write this.
My mission is simple. I am just a voter who wants to defeat Hillary Clinton and keep a GOP Senate. I want to support a candidate who will do both.
As of today, Mr. Trump is not that candidate:
1) He loses to Clinton in the RCP average. She is up 9 points against Trump. Cruz is in a dead heat but Kasich is up 5!
I hear from Trump’s supporters that these polls don’t mean anything or that Presidnet Carter beat Governor Reagan at this point in 1980.
I was there in 1980 and remember that poll quite well.
However, three things happened in that campaign after that poll: The Anderson independent candidacy that took votes from President Carter, the challenge by Senator Kennedy that picked up speed in the spring and early summer and the failed rescue of the Iran hostages in late April.
It was 47-39 by October ’80 but President Carter was stuck under 50% and inspiring nobody but there were still doubts about Governor Reagan. Then Reagan closed the sale in the one on one debate, the famous “there you go again” moment.
2) More than polls, Mr. Trump has a Latino and woman problem. The Trump supporters counter this by saying that he will bring all of these new voters. They point to the GOP primary turnout. However, it’s not clear that this turnout is to support Trump. My guess is that GOP voters are highly motivated with or without Trump. I didn’t show up to vote because of Trump!
Again, all of this could be moot if Mr. Trump reaches Cleveland with 1,237 delegates.
If he doesn’t, then the delegates will act to nominate someone who can win the election.
Don’t be surprised if that means Kasich-Rubio, a ticket with a very good chance of winning the general election and has more appeal to the women and Latinos that we will need.
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.
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