Friday, March 18, 2016

Only Trump can elect Clinton

Back in 1992, I was having lunch with a bunch of disenchanted GOP friends.  We were looking at October 1992 polls and desperately seeking something to get excited about.  One guy said: “[Expletive deleted] Ross Perot.”  He spoke for all of us!
I hope I’m not looking at October 2016 polls and saying, “[Expletive deleted] Trump!”
Go ahead and tell me that March polls are meaningless.  Or that Megyn Kelly of Fox News hates Trump.  Or whatever other excuse is going around these days.
The GOP will be running against the weakest candidate on the other side.    
Let’s look at Clinton, according to Doug Schoen:
Mrs. Clinton appears to have a virtual lock on the Democratic nomination. She leads Bernie Sanders with 1,561 pledged and superdelegates to his 800 (though superdelegates can defect, as Mrs. Clinton found out in 2008). In the latest WSJ/NBC News poll she beats the GOP front-runner, Donald Trump, by 13 points.
But dampening this good news for the Clinton campaign is a sobering reality: The candidate’s base of support is shrinking, and it may not be broad enough for her to win a national election. Mrs. Clinton retains the core of her husband’s presidential constituency, doing best among moderates—but in 2016 these are a diminishing portion of a Democratic base increasingly dominated by more-liberal voters. Bill Clinton drew support in large numbers from white men, independents and young people. Mrs. Clinton struggles with those groups.
Even among the ultimate Democratic Party voting bloc—blacks—she is showing signs of erosion both in support and enthusiasm for her candidacy. Since her 80% take of African-American voters in South Carolina and Mississippi in recent weeks, Mrs. Clinton has seen her black support in other states drop by about 10 percentage points. In Michigan, Mr. Sanders pulled in 30% of the African-American vote and broke even with Mrs. Clinton among black voters under age 45.
This trend continued on Tuesday: Mr. Sanders took 32% of black support in Missouri, 30% in Ohio and 29% in Illinois, highlighting a significant gap in Southern and Northern black support for the former first lady.
Mrs. Clinton is the weakest Democrat candidate since Governor Dukakis had the misfortune of running against V.P. Bush in 1988, or President Reagan’s third term.
Mrs. Clinton creates zero excitement, turnout is down, and supporters are scared that she will start coughing at a moment’s notice.
So why is she leading Trump by 13 points?  Why is Trump down 6 in the RCP average?
The answer is that Trump is a great primary candidate, especially when he gets by with slogans and 35% of the vote.  And he continues to say things (riots if I don’t get nomination) that play right into the hands of Democrat ad consultants who need a reason to get voters to show up for Hillary!  
I’d love to be wrong.  I will write a post in November and say, Cheers, I was wrong!  I will even put a picture of Trump as my Facebook cover photo.
However, Bill had Ross, and Hillary has Donald!  She beats him, and so many polls cannot be all wrong!
P.S. You can listen to my show (Canto Talk) and follow me on Twitter.

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