However, the GOP is really hoping to "catch a wave and sit on top of the world," to paraphrase The Beach Boys.
We feel comfortable today to predict that the GOP will win 6 Senate seats in the fall. They are West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota plus Arkansas, Alaska, and Louisiana – six very red states. They are also six states where President Obama is extremely unpopular.
There is also North Carolina, and some interesting possibilities in places like Virginia and Iowa. Colorado and Oregon are interesting, too, but don't count on them.
Whether it's 6 or 10, it depends on the wave, or what we saw in 1994 and 2010 for the GOP or 2006 for the Democrats.
According to Barry Casselman, we don't know for sure, but there is noise over the horizon:
The key, when all is said and done, to a wave election will be in fact whether or not voters feel their choices will be made as a reflection of their attitude and mood about the national situation.The moral of the story is that no one predicted a wave at this time in 1994 or 2010. Yet somehow they materialized and resulted in huge GOP pickups. The GOP does not need a similar wave because the U.S. House is safely in its hands. What they need is a wave in about 7-10 states.
Watch for the signs of this to begin to appear (or fail to appear) in polls about two weeks before election day. Until then, the numbers will gyrate within a narrow range, and several individual race outcomes will be uncertain.
Halloween falls on the Friday before election day this year. We will by then have a better idea whether 2014 is going to be trick or treat.
It could be very interesting on the Wednesday after the first Tuesday of November.
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