Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Keep an eye on the elections in Mexico and Hugo Chavez' health

As we vote on Super Tuesday, and concentrate on foreign & domestic issues, let's keep an eye on the elections in Mexico and the health of Hugo Chavez.

Let's start with Mexico.  Our southern neighbor will have a presidential election in 4 months, or the first Sunday of July. 

According to early polls, the opposition PRI will win and do well in the legislative contests as well.  The governing PAN is not doing well in large part because they've been in power for 12 years and the country is very tired of the war against the cartels.  The left, or PRD, will return with Mr Lopez Obrador but no one thinks that he will do better than a distant third.

What does this mean for us?  We better hope that the next president of Mexico will continue the war against the cartels and sits down with the US to discuss border security and other mutual issues.

In other words, we need some continuity in Mexico and we  hope that voters see it the same way south of the border.  At the same time, we understand that Mexicans are really tired of the deaths and concerned about their future.

Let's talk about Hugo Chavez.  We read in Fausta's blog that he is very sick.  This is why he travelled to Cuba.  He went there to find the isolation that only the Cuban dictatorship can provide.

Chavez may not live another year and that will have consequences in Venezuela and its relationship with Cuba, Syria and Iran.  Unfortunately, Chavez has been hanging around with a lot of bad guys.  He has also been subsidizing the Cuban economy with cheap oil.

Keep an eye on Chavez' medical condition because his death will have consequences in our hemisphere.  

Who is going to subsidize all of these anti-US elements after Chavez dies?  Nobody and that's why Raul Castro is probably wishing that he dies before Chavez does. 

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