In a couple of recent posts, we've discussed how Republicans in Texas won elections in areas with significant Hispanic population, from McAllen to Fort Worth to Arlington to that special election in the 6th district. In other words, those areas are rich in Hispanic votes but the Democrats were not the ones partying on election night.
Who spoiled "la fiesta"?
This analysis confirms what I've been seeing. This is from Roll Call:
The 2020 election was a surprise on many levels. President Donald Trump got much closer to reelection than most pundits predicted. The blue wave turned out to be a figment of the media’s and Democrats’ imagination. And Republicans did far better than expected down ballot and across the country.
There have been plenty of autopsies done by partisans and academics, and plenty of interesting takeaways from the election, particularly on what happened with Hispanics and why. The answer is ideology. Today, Hispanic voters tend to be slightly center-right, ideologically, and closer to independents at a time when the Democratic Party is heading further and further left.
In one post-election report, a consortium of Democratic groups acknowledged what they called “campaign misfires” in the way Democrats engaged Hispanic and Latino voters.
Specifically, the report says, “Latino and Hispanic voters were broadly treated as get-out-the-vote targets rather than audiences for persuasion.” It went on to say, “Campaign messaging didn’t always reflect the different values and priorities of urban Hispanic voters vs rural Hispanic voters, much less account for what would persuade Hispanic men in the Rio Grande Valley, oil and gas workers in New Mexico or Latinas in South Florida.”
In a recent New York Magazine interview, Democratic pollster David Shor weighed in on his party’s performance in the 2020 election. Based on the interview, it appears that Democrats continue to interpret 2022 in the context of demographics, race and class and less about voters’ belief systems and positions on issues.
It's a long analysis but let me give you the short version: The party lives in San Francisco and Hispanics live in Texas.
We saw this recently with the "heartbeat law." The Texas Democrat Party does not endorse the law on the grounds that it takes away your "reproductive rights." On the other hand, most Hispanic women are probably saying don't you hear a baby's heartbeat inside that "mami"?
We will see in 2022. I will go out and predict that Democrats have left the Hispanics behind on many issues, from abortion to border control.
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