My good friend Israel Ortega was recently on Newsmax TV and discussed Hispanics and the economy and how it could play in 2016. He believes that the economy affects more Hispanics than immigration, or simply the reality that immigration reform affects those who are here illegally. In other words, there are millions of Hispanics in the U.S. who do not speak Spanish or watch Jorge Ramos!
Israel also made a larger point about diversity. All you have to do is look at the TV screen and see it for yourself: Cruz, Rubio, and Carson got more half of the vote in a state that is 90% white!
Looking ahead, the Republican Party has a real opportunity to connect with Hispanic voters in a number of critical early primary states, including South Carolina and Nevada. The Palmetto State has seen a dramatic growth in its Hispanic population in recent years. In fact, according to the U.S. Census and the Pew Research Center, South Carolina had the second-fastest growing Hispanic population in the country from 2000–2011. With an estimated 5 percent of the population, and around half of that number eligible to vote, the Hispanic vote could make a difference in a tight race.
After South Carolina, the remaining Republican hopefuls head out west to Nevada, with an estimated 27 percent Hispanic population and a significant number of eligible voters. What’s more, Nevada is among a handful of swing states that could very well decide the election in November.
“At some point, elections are not about politics or policy; they are about math,” writes John Ralston, a journalist who has covered Nevada politics for nearly 25 years. “He or she who gets the most votes wins, and Hispanics arguably are the most potent rising bloc in both Nevada and American politics.”
Therein lies the opportunity for Republicans heading into the fall. The reality is that both Cruz and Rubio remain unknown to many Latino voters. This is changing, of course, as media coverage intensifies. But in a study conducted a few years ago by the well-respected Pew Hispanic Center, a scant percentage of Latinos polled identified Rubio as a national leader, but perhaps more revealing, a whopping 62 percent of those polled could not name a national leader.
Of course, the opportunity is there, but only if the GOP seizes on it. I am not talking about promoting amnesty but rather knocking on the door and asking for the vote! Or going on TV and telling Hispanics that the GOP wants school choice.
The 2016 political landscape will be different than 2008. Again, I hope that the GOP understands that the “si se puede” enthusiasm of 2008 is really “no se puede” in Hispanic districts today.
Again, knock on the door and ask for the vote! Don’t assume that the Hispanic vote is locked up.
