Let me tell you this about election day:
1) AG Abbott will be elected governor of Texas, but I don't know if it's by 10 or 20 points.
2) We will have surprises on Tuesday because the polls are so confusing.
Yesterday, I saw two stories about the early vote. According to Nate Cohen at The New York Times, the early voting is favoring Democrats in several states, including Colorado. At the same time, the AP is reporting that early voting favors the GOP in Colorado.
Who is right? Who is wrong? I'm confused.
Over in New Hampshire, one poll had Senator Shaheen up 7 and another one showed a tie with former Senator Brown. Are these pollsters calling voters in the same state?
Again in Colorado, one poll had incumbent Senator Udall at 39% and the other at 44%. Same question as before: are they calling voters in the same state?
I'm not knocking pollsters. They do their best to get it right and often do. My point is that we've developed this dependence on pollsters rather than old-fashioned journalists who walk the streets, talking to real people. Sadly, our news coverage is relying too heavily on polls based on questionable samples. After all, how many of you answer your land line anymore? How many even have land lines?
My guess is that the GOP will do well on Tuesday, or somewhere between six and seven pickups. They include Alaska, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Arkansas, and Louisiana. North Carolina is the seventh, if Mr. Tillis can win there. I'm also assuming that the GOP will hold on to Georgia and Kansas. I will wait for the results in Colorado and Iowa.
My conclusion is not just poll-driven. It's based on a gut feeling that the country wants a change. In other words, they can't change the president, but they are hoping that election will send a message.
My warning to the GOP is that this is an anti-incumbent election, and voters do not want to change office space in the U.S. Senate building for the heck of it.
In the end, I hope that future Majority Leader McConnell allows his fellow senators to vote on issues that concern the country. For example, repeal Obamacare and force President Obama to veto it. Ditto on tax reform, school choice, and other issues that matter to real people. Get active and pass legislation, and force Democrats to vote one way or another.
P.S. You can hear CANTO TALK here & follow me on Twitter @ scantojr.
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