(This is my first post from the blog)
Bush will win.
The popular vote will be 52-47. It may be closer, such as 50-49, if Kerry wins California and New York by over 15 points.
New Jersey is a Bush surprise. Gore won NJ by over 15 points!
Add Pennsylvania to that surprise list.
The electoral college will put Bush at around 300 votes.
P.S. The final vote was 51-48% and President Bush got 286 Electoral votes. So I was pretty close!