November was a tough election cycle for Senate Republicans, who were defending 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs, many in states that Obama won twice.It will basically be the reverse in 2018. Democrats are defending 10 seats in states that Trump won, sometimes by double-digit margins. Midterms are normally kind to the party not in power, but this map shows serious head winds for Democrats.Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) and Jon Tester (Mont.) are running for reelection in states that voted for Trump over Clinton by 19 points or more. (In West Virginia, Trump won by 42 points.) If these Democratic-held seats and a few others fall to Republicans in 2018, it’s possible the GOP’s 52-seat majority becomes a 60-seat supermajority.At the very least, it looks likely Republicans will pick up a few seats.More bad news for Democrats: Some political analysts think that if Republicans turn seats in red or red-leaning states, such as West Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, those seats could stay Republican for a long time. Especially if 2016’s presidential election is any indication.My colleague Philip Bump calculated there were 27 counties that had supported the Democratic candidate consistently for at least 40 years that switched to Trump in this year’s election. Those counties were clustered in states such as Indiana and Michigan, where Democrats will be defending Senate seats.
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