Thursday, January 26, 2012

Pres BO should drop the "class warfare" rhetoric and adopt Pres Reagan's "growth oriented policies"!

We've had two big recessions since World War II.  They are the 1981-82 recession, related to oil prices and inflation, and the 2008-09 recession made worse by the mortgage banking crisis.

In 1981, Pres Reagan bet on capitalism.  In 2009, Pres Obama bet on expansion of government.  

I think that we can now review the results and Pres Reagan is clearly ahead.

Today's WSJ editorial makes the point:

"The President inherited a deep recession, but in political terms that should have been a blessing. 

History shows that the deeper the recession, the sharper the recovery, and Mr. Obama was poised to take credit for the economy's natural recuperative powers. 

Instead, we've had the weakest recovery since the Great Depression and stubbornly high joblessness.

The nearby chart compares rates of quarterly growth during the Reagan and Obama economic recoveries. 

The comparison is apt because both recoveries followed deep recessions in which the jobless rate reached more than 10%. 

Once the Reagan recovery got cooking, in 1983, growth stayed above 5% for 18 months and never fell below 3.3% for 13 consecutive quarters. 

In the Obama recovery, growth has never exceeded 4% in any quarter and fell off markedly in mid-2010 through the third quarter of 2011. 

For the first nine months of 2011, growth averaged less than 1.2%. 

The economy finally picked up again in the fourth quarter, but still at a rate that is subpar for a recovery that long ago should have become robust and durable."

To be fair, the world in 1984 was a little different than today.  We did not have China back then.  We did not have the European banking crisis and the Japanese economy was doing a lot better.  We also did not have the "baby boomers' ready to go on Social Security.

At the same time, we did have presidential leadership willing to tackle issues and offer bold solutions.  We don't have today.  I would argue that most our problems today stem from Pres BO's unwillingness to get in the game and lead.

In 1984, Pres Reagan ran for reelection boasting his record.  It was called "Morning in America".  He carried 49 states and 60% of the popular vote.   He came within a few thousand votes of winning Minnesota and making it an electoral college sweep.

We don't expect that Pres BO will be talking a great deal about his record in the upcoming election.  He will run a campaign of "scare tactics" and "class warfare" because that's all that he has at his disposal.  It won't be pretty even if wins.  He will divide the country and find it very difficult to govern if he wins.

Check out Wednesday commentary about the speech:


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