Richard Baehr thinks that it may not happen in 2012.
In fact, Richard believes that the GOP could have the best Jewish-American support since Pres Eisenhower in the 1950's.
What's the problem?
This is what Richard posted:
"And then came the New York 9 results. In a district that is believed to have the highest percentage of Jewish population to total population of any of the 435 congressional districts, the Republican candidate, Bob Turner, won the special election — the first GOP winner in this district since 1922.
The district has been redesigned every ten years after a new redistricting plan was adopted, and a portion of the district that is in Queens was represented by a Republican as recently as the 1960s.
But it is safe to say that New York 9 has been a Democratic seat for a long time, usually with big margins for the Democratic nominee (22% for Anthony Weiner in 2010, a good GOP year nationally)."
Pres BO and Israel were big issues in this special election. It was clearly a signal that Jewish Americans are not happy with Pres BO when it comes to Israel.
As Richard discussed on our Tuesday show, the Jewish American can be critical in some states, specially Florida:
"But if Obama’s margin among Jewish voters were to drop sharply (from 56% in 2008 to 20-30% in 2012), that would represent a net shift of about 100,000 to 125,000 votes in Florida, and close to half that range in Pennsylvania.
Elections have been decided by a lot less than this."
Yes, they have. Let's remember that candidate BO won Florida, Ohio, Indiana, NC and Virginia in very close elections.
The Jewish-American vote could tilt these states back to the GOP and the electoral votes too.
We will see. It bears repeating that the election is still 13 months away and many things could happen. Nevertheless, it does not look good for Pres BO when it co mes to the Jewish American vote.
By the way, we also discussed with Richard the fate of Pres BO's "jobs bill". It appears that the Senate Dems have put the brakes on this proposal and do not have the votes to pass it. (Senate Majority Leader Reid is not in any hurry to pass it!)
Here is our conversation with Richard Baehr:
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