For the last 15 years, we've heard about Mexico's large families and young men who risked everything to travel to the US.
However, it won't be that way for the next 25 years because Mexico is changing and changing fast.
Let's look back at the 1994-2008 period. We had "a perfect storm" and it drove a lot of Mexicans to the US looking for better opportunities:
First, the Mexican economy collapsed in '94 and it hit the interior of the country very hard. Most of the people who've come recently are from "ranchitos" or small towns that offer no opportunities to young people.
Second, we enjoyed a strong economic period until the recession of late '08!
Third, we had unemployment rates in the 4 to 5% range from 1996 until 2007! Also, GDP growth was very strong during that period.
Fourth, we saw big growth in the Southwest, specially in construction, restaurant openings and very light manufacturing. It was a perfect magnet for unskilled Mexicans looking for a better life.
Fifth, we got so busy with our growth that we did not enforce immigration laws at the border or against employers.
What was the consequence of this perfect storm? 10-15 million people working in the US without papers!
Let's look back at the 1994-2008 period. We had "a perfect storm" and it drove a lot of Mexicans to the US looking for better opportunities:
First, the Mexican economy collapsed in '94 and it hit the interior of the country very hard. Most of the people who've come recently are from "ranchitos" or small towns that offer no opportunities to young people.
Second, we enjoyed a strong economic period until the recession of late '08!
Third, we had unemployment rates in the 4 to 5% range from 1996 until 2007! Also, GDP growth was very strong during that period.
Fourth, we saw big growth in the Southwest, specially in construction, restaurant openings and very light manufacturing. It was a perfect magnet for unskilled Mexicans looking for a better life.
Fifth, we got so busy with our growth that we did not enforce immigration laws at the border or against employers.
What was the consequence of this perfect storm? 10-15 million people working in the US without papers!
What happens next?
First, you will see more and more states tackle immigration enforcement because they can no longer absorb the cost of providing social services, and specially free public schools, to illegal immigrants. We can't do it anymore!
Second, employers are not hiring at all. We've seen a big reduction in construction and restaurants are closing.
In other words, more and more Mexicans will go home because there won't be jobs up here.
Looking ahead, Mexico is also changing because its population will not increase in the future as much as it did in the last 40 years.
Family planning is now more common in Mexico. As you can see in the article graphs, the birth rate in Mexico is now a bit over 2.0 versus 6.0 plus in 1970.
Also, professional women are having less children as they match careers with motherhood.
We've seen the last of the "people waves" from Mexico. In other words, Mexico will be in a much better position to take care of its own people!
First, you will see more and more states tackle immigration enforcement because they can no longer absorb the cost of providing social services, and specially free public schools, to illegal immigrants. We can't do it anymore!
Second, employers are not hiring at all. We've seen a big reduction in construction and restaurants are closing.
In other words, more and more Mexicans will go home because there won't be jobs up here.
Looking ahead, Mexico is also changing because its population will not increase in the future as much as it did in the last 40 years.
Family planning is now more common in Mexico. As you can see in the article graphs, the birth rate in Mexico is now a bit over 2.0 versus 6.0 plus in 1970.
Also, professional women are having less children as they match careers with motherhood.
We've seen the last of the "people waves" from Mexico. In other words, Mexico will be in a much better position to take care of its own people!
Check out Damien Cave's great article about the changing Mexico Better Lives for Mexicans Cut Allure of Going North
There is also a Spanish translation here!
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