We must be very careful to make predictions because a lot can happen: Just ask Pres Bush in 1991! Or, do you remember the Guiliani-Clinton contest that everyone was predicting in June 2007?
Nevertheless, they can not be very happy at The Obama White House over recent economic news or polling data. Check this from Rasmussen, one of the most reliable polling organizations in the US:
"An incumbent who earns support below 50% is generally considered politically vulnerable. In every matchup tested so far this year against potential GOP challengers, the president’s support has stayed between 42% and 49%.
The president’s total job approval ratings are a good indicator of what percentage of the vote he may earn in the 2012 presidential race.
Aside from a brief bounce in support following the killing of Osama bin Laden, Obama’s approval ratings have hovered in the high 40s for the past 18 months."
Again, this is not over. Good and bad stuff will happen over the next 18 months.
However, it's very difficult to make the argument that Pres BO is in a strong electoral position.
We saw more bad economic news, from more people applying for unemployment benefits to terrible info about the housing industry plus employers creating fewer jobs than expected.
We spend a lot of time talking about the GOP field. However, none of them will have to defend a record. On the other hand, Pres BO will have to run on his record and it is not pretty.
Check out our Wednesday's thoughts:
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