Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Romney 49, BO 47: What does it mean?


Everybody is talking about the new poll showing Gov Romney up 2 points on Pres BO. 

First, this is only one poll.  Let's see if other polls confirm this!

Second, the poll had a very "pro-Dem sample".  In other words, it may be closer to 50-45 with a better sample.  (See Ed Morrissey's analysis on the sample)

Third, it helps Gov Romney because it will support the argument that he is the best man to defeat Pres. Obama.

Fourth, it will probably encourage more to get into the race.  I fully expect Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush to get in!

Last, but not least, I think that the poll is more evidence that Pres BO is under 50% again. 

As every consultant will tell you, it is very difficult for an incumbent to get reelected with numbers under 50%.

Check out our conversation with Tom Washington and Richard Baehr about 2012 and this poll:


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