Friday, February 04, 2011

Another very weird "jobs" report

The headline is a good one:  The unemployment drops to 9%!

The details are awful: 36,000 new jobs created!

How can this happen?  How can the "rate" drop from 9.4% to 9% but only add a meager number of jobs?

It makes no sense!

Ed Morrissey found this in "the numbers behind the numbers":

"Zero Hedge notes that the U-6 number went from 16.6% to 17.3%. 

He also catches something I missed — the civilian labor force dropped from 153,690,000 in December to 153,186,000 in January after a recent November peak of 153,950,000. 

That was a drop of 504,000 in January from December, and 764,000 in two months. 

The participation rate dropped from 64.5% in November to 64.3% in December and 64.2% in January."

Again, the "jobs report" makes no sense and we need a little bit more information before we conclude anything about the state of the US economy.

No one wants to see a rebound in jobs more than I do!

However, this report raises questions rather than answer them!

P.S. I saw this: Labor Force Participation Plunges To Fresh 26 Year Low.  It tells us that:

"At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian noninstitutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186).

Those not in the Labor Force has increased [1]from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year!

As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months!

The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job."





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