We've watched Mexico for almost 30 years. We have never seen this kind of concern in high places about our southern neighbor.
Check out this report:
"Mexico and Pakistan are at risk of a "rapid and sudden collapse," according to a recent report from the U.S. Joint Forces Command."
That's the US Joint Forces Command!
These are the guys who keep an eye on threats. They don't have time to make up stuff like this!
How likely is Mexico to collapse? I don't know but the top guys in the US military think that it's pretty serious!
There is obviously a lot of concern that Mexico's institutions will not survive the corruption of drug money and cartel terrorism.
My guess is that there is also concern that public opinion could turn against Calderon and the war.
What could happen? Ed has a good assessment:
"How would the US protect itself from a warlord-ridden Mexico?
We’d have to give serious consideration to arming the southern border to a far larger extent than any time in our history.
Cross-border cooperation on drug smuggling would come to a halt, as we might find ourselves in a situation shown in the movie Traffic in which we wind up unwittingly allying with one cartel over another in the guise of official governmental contacts.
And that’s not even mentioning the opportunities for terrorist groups to exploit lawless regions for their own purposes, right on our doorstep instead of half a world away.
In fact, a failed Mexico would quickly become our primary national-security concern.
Immigration issues would become secondary, at best."
We may also have to intervene to protect Mexico's oil fields and refineries.
Our Navy would probably have to shut down Mexico's ports to prevent terrorist groups from sailing in.
It sounds like a movie. Doesn't it?
However, sometimes life imitates art!
My bet is that Mexico will survive.
At the same time, let me hedge my bet by checking things at the mid-year point.
We can say this.
Pres Obama will be talking a lot about Mexico in 2009 and it won't be about immigration reform!
