The media spin is to aid Democrats, which means that right now the spin is to make our present situation look like an unprecedented crisis (both to make Bush look bad and to provide cover for transferring lots of borrowed money to Democratic interest groups).
So I will try to provide the service of putting current numbers in perspective, with as little spin as possible.
First off, the "annual rate" of 3.8% shrinkage is what we'd get if that same one-quarter pace continued for four quarters.
What actually happened was that GDP shrank 0.1% in the 3rd quarter and 1.0% in the 4th, for a combined loss of 1.1% over two quarters.
Through all of 2008, the real GDP shrank just 0.2%, because the economy actually grew in the first half of the year.
So far in this recession (and it is now OK to call it a recession ), real GDP has shrunk 1.1% from its peak, and non-farm payrolls has shrunk 1.9% from its peak."
As Randall said: It's finally OK to call it a recession!
Randall has another message for Pres Obama and the Democrats:
"By the way, none of the previous recessions was ended by the government spending a trillion dollars.
Our current deficit is projected to be 7% of GDP or more.
The deficit never exceeded 6% of GDP in any of the previous 10 recessions, or at any time since 1946."
So it's OK to call it a recession. It's not OK to drive our federal deficit to 7% of GDP!
At the same time, it's not OK to call it a depression, or the worst economic crisis since the Magna Carta, Joan of Arc, the Black Plague, Columbus or when Peter betrayed Jesus.
Before you jump off the roof....before you take the rat poison....before you surrender all of your freedoms so that Uncle Obama and Aunt Pelosi will take care of......please stand back and get your act together.
The US economy is going to do a lot better than most.
In fact, don't be surprised if the lines at US Embassies get longer and longer!
The IMF has a new report about the world's economies in 2009:
That's not good, but it's better than the IMF predicts for any developed country other than Canada.
The IMF projects Germany's GDP to be down 2.5% this year, France's 1.9%, the U.K.'s 2.8% and Japan's 2.6%.
Similarly, the IMF expects the U.S. to lead the way out of the global recession, with stronger growth returning in 2010 than in other developed countries.
The IMF predicts 1.6% GDP growth in 2010 for the U.S., compared with 0.1% for Germany, 0.7% for France, 0.2% for the U.K, and 0.6% for Japan.
If the IMF is right, one effect of the current global downturn will be to increase the economic gap between the U.S. and rivals among the developed countries.
At the same time, the IMF projects less developed economies (like China's and India's) to continue to gain on the developed world.
All of which offers more evidence that the hysteria currently being whipped up in Washington over the alleged need to add another trillion dollars in federal debt is overstated, at best." (John Hinderaker)
Can we lower the "doom and gloom" volume?
If this report is true, and our GDP contracts by 1.6%, then that's actually a pretty mild recession.
In other words, we had 1.1% growth in 2008 and a projected 1.6% negative growth in 2009.
Let me get this straight: We go from "plus 1.1%" to "minus 1.6%" and these people are calling this a depression?
Or the worst recession since the Great Depression?
What planet are these "doom and gloomers" living in?
I was around in 1982 and this economy looks like a charm compared to that one!
Again, can we turn down the "doom and gloom" volume?
We've got problems. However, our biggest problem is a media looking at everything in a negative way.
P.S. A Depression? NY Times 4Q profit off 48 pct!
Now, that's a depression!
