Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Don't get caught in the minute to minute poll games!
Beware of polls. Beware of the sample.
How else do you explain these differences between polls?
How can one poll show Obama winning by 14, another by 4 and another by 2?
Todd Eberly is an assistant professor of political science at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. Today, he posted a good analysis of all of the polls and the varying results:
"Consider the Newsweek poll.
Although the poll reports that Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 41 percent overall, the poll also shows that McCain is winning Independent voters 45 percent to 43 percent.
Obama is winning Democrats 91 percent to 5 percent and McCain wins Republican by 89 percent to 7 percent.
From these numbers, it’s difficult to understand Obama’s 11-point advantage — until you look further into the polls internals and see that the results are based on a respondent sample that was 40 percent Democrat (D), 27 percent Republican (R), and 30 percent Independent (I)."
Again, do you buy the partisan breakdown? I don't!
I don't see any evidence that the country breaks down: 40 Dem, 27 Rep and 30 Ind.
If it did then Al Gore would have won Tennessee and Clinton would have delivered Arkansas to the party in 2000!
Again, let's go back to Professor Eberly:
"The problem is:
In no recent election has the Democratic Party (or any party) enjoyed such an advantage among the American electorate.
In 2004, exit polling data found the electorate to be 37 percent D, 37 percent R and 26 percent I.
In the 2006 midterm elections for the House of Representatives the electorate was 38 percent D, 36 percent R, and 26 percent I.
In 1996 and 2000, Democrats enjoyed a 4-point edge over Republicans.
Given this history, it seems hard to believe that the Democrats have suddenly leapt to a 13-point partisan advantage."
Now, please consider this:
Pres. Johnson is the only Dem since 1948 to crack 51% of the popular vote. He actually won a 60-40% landslide over Goldwater in 1964. (Remember that election: LBJ warned us that Goldwater wanted to start a war in Vietnam!)
JFK and Clinton did not even hit 50%. Truman and Carter won 50-50 elections!
Don't get down by reading polls. Watch the baseball playoffs! The Tampa Bay Rays are an amazing story. Enjoy Carl Crawford flying around the bases and Evan Longoria putting another one in the seats.
This is still a "too close to call" election. There is no evidence that Obama has closed the deal.
What can you do? Vote. Tell your friends to vote. Show up and vote for McCain and everything will fall into place.
I am not worried about the polls.
However, I'm worried about ACORN and massive fraud in our cities. Keep in mind what Dick Morris wrote about ACORN and Obama:
"What makes ACORN particularly embarrassing for Obama is that he used to be one of them.
He served as general counsel for ACORN in Illinois, channeled millions to the organization from the Chicago Annenberg Challenge (whose funds he distributed), and has lately spent $800,000 of his campaign money to subsidize the group's activities.
For this emolument, ACORN has registered voters 15 times over, canvassed the graveyards for votes and prepared to commit electoral fraud on a massive scale."