Friday, October 24, 2008
Beware of so many crazy polls!
Check out The Drudge Report and you will see these two headlines:
Let me use a baseball analogy. The World Series will go 4 or 7 games! This election is going to be close or it will be a landslide. Pick your favorite poll!
Frankly, the polls are crazy. I don't know why. I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories. My guess is that different pollsters are using different criteria.
For example, one poll has Obama plus 10. Unfortunately, the sample is skewed to the Dems.
Another poll has Obama plus 14. What's wrong with that? No Democrat has been over 50% since Pres. Johnson in 1964.
Who is right? Your guess is as good as mine.
I think that Obama is 3-5 points ahead of McCain Also, Obama has not closed the sale with rural and suburban whites. In other words, Obama has the same problem that he had against Hillary Clinton.
P.S. For more fun, check out Are the Polls Accurate? by Michael Barone. You will see a lot of Barone on election night. Barone is FOX News' numbers specialist. He is fun to watch and very savvy about US elections.