Tuesday, November 27, 2007
My bet is on the dollar!
Yes, I hear all of the doom and gloom about the US dollar. However, I am putting my money on the dollar. I think that the dollar is the "long term bet" in this race:
"GaveKal, an international investment-research boutique with offices in the U.S., Hong Kong, Paris and Abu Dhabi, recently penned a report lauding the dollar's prospects against the euro.
In fact, in a telephone interview from Paris, firm founder Charles Gave terms the euro "grotesquely overvalued" at its current level. In the next couple of years, he maintains, the euro should fall to its "parity" value of $1.05 to $1.10.
Gave, whose firm's good track record has won it a large institutional following in the U.S. and Europe, points to several secular factors that bode well for the greenback versus the euro.
For example, rapidly aging populations in euroland figure to decimate working populations there and increase the governmental financial burden at a pace far faster than in the U.S. European countries such as France have far higher debt-to-GDP burdens than the U.S., especially when estimates of their unfunded pension liabilities for government employees are figured in.
Adding to this European fiscal burden is a trend that Gave, out of political correctness, hesitates even to verbalize -- Islamization.
Higher birth rates of Muslim populations that have been only imperfectly integrated into European economic and cultural life could pose big problems in the Old World over the next several decades.
For one thing, the trend could boost unemployment." (A Comeback for the Greenback)
Let me translate. The US has a better future than Europe! It's as simple as that!
The dollar will come back because Europe is facing a major economic slowdown with its overvalued euro. Over the weekend, I heard a radio report about European tourists buying like crazy in New York. Some even hinted at buying property here because it was such a good deal!
At some point, the Euro economies will feel the heat of excessive inventories and a drop in tourism. Eventually, countries will react and force a devaluation of the euro.
So don't save your euros. Bet on the US dollar! As I said before, there is a better future here. How do I know? Well, do you see Americans lining up to move to Europe?
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