Monday, October 16, 2006
My money is on Rove
It's October 15th and here goes my prediction: The Republicans will hold the House and Senate.
I will put my money on Karl Rove.
Nevertheless, some of my favorite pundits are a bit gloomy. The Power Line posted this Why the sea of blue? Fred Barnes wrote How Bad Will It Be? See Just How Doomed Is the GOP? By Jay Cost. He was very accurate in the past and does not believe that there will be a Dem blow out.
Rove is optimistic. Check out White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects By Michael Abramowitz of The Washington Post:
"Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term."
What will happen on election day? I stand by my predictions that the Republicans will hold their majorities. Why? As a practical matter, 95% of incumbents will be reelected. Over the years, people have told pollsters that they hate Congress but love their congressman.
See Incumbency is clear winner in House midterms By Donald Lambro:
"While voter approval of Congress has plunged to 32 percent in the wake of the lobbying and congressional-page scandals, a Washington Post-ABC News poll of voters last week found that at least 60 percent liked and supported their representatives.
"The old adage that voters hate Congress but love their congressman continues to ring true. Incumbents are hard to beat," said Jonathan Collegio, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee."
Are people going to throw out their Congressman? I don't think so.
On other issues, the US economy is doing fine. (See Anyone keeping up with the economy)
The Democrats' biggest enemy is their leadership, such as Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. They have pushed the party so far to the left that it makes no sense. The Democrats would be in for sure if their leaders sounded like Zell Miller and Scoop Jackson. See Their intoxicating power lost, Dems now only complain by JOHN REINIERS:
"In these fast moving and complex times, it is sad and strange that the Democrats have no centrist leader- just one dynamic person who can rally them. Howard "the scream" Dean, Harry Reid, Henry Waxman, and Nancy Pelosi are so divisive and so far to the left, it is surprising they don't fall over."
Last but not least, there is turnout and discipline. The Republicans have a wonderful vote turnout machine and it always shows up on election day. See The New York Times Democrats Have Intensity, but G.O.P. Has Its Machine:
"The Republican machine was on full display last weekend in Ohio, where volunteers worked phone banks in all 88 counties on what the party called Super Saturday. They contacted 100,000 carefully selected potential Republican voters and knocked on the doors of 50,000. When the day was done, Jason Mauk, the political director for the state party, said, “I think that really discredits the notion that Republican voters and volunteers are not energized.”
Will it work in 2006? Do you think that Republicans will stay home because of Mark Foley? I don't see that.
What we have is a tight ball game. The Dems are leading 2-1 after 7 innings. Is it over? They are trailing now but the game is not over yet.
The Republicans will hold their majorities. My money is on Karl Rove. I have never lost money betting on Karl Rove. I'm willing to give him another chance.
Posted by Silvio Canto, Jr. Post Link ---> 5:45 AM
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR BLOG
- ► 2012 (573)
- ► 2011 (857)
- ► 2010 (869)
- ► 2009 (1364)
- ► 2008 (1272)
- ► 2007 (1158)
- What was John Kerry thinking?
- Help Senator Santorum
- The USS Reagan is ready to go!
- The amazing Kerry and his latest remarks
- Pre-election violence?
- Happy Halloween?
- Mrs. Cheney and CNN
- The Oaxaca mess is not about teachers
- Raul faces an angry Cuba
- Obama is a good man but is he ready for the presid...
- What's going on in Paris?
- The US-Mexico border is a lot more dangerous than ...
- Enjoy my TV debate over the US-Mexico wall
- The Fox ad backfires in Maryland
- What happens to dissidents in Cuba?
- Is Raul moving closer to the US?
- Can you tell me what Obama stands for?
- Don't blame Rush Limbaugh for questioning what Mic...
- We remember Nathan Aguirre, a young man killed in ...
- Two years and still blogging
- Michael Fox's ad, part 2
- Sorry Michael, you are not telling the truth!
- Some thoughts about the End of Fidel
- Get ready because Fidel's death is coming soon
- Hey guys: Are you still using your cell phone
- Good movie: The flag of our fathers
- Surveillance did not start with Bush!
- Those wonderful TV moms
- CNN, the video and my friend's son is killed in Ir...
- The Detroit Tigers are good for baseball!
- Baseball and winter?
- The BBC and The NY Times have gone overboard with ...
- The mess on the US-Mexico border is a national sec...
- Are you looking for a job? Move to Texas!
- What about the US economy?
- Great week for the US economy but bad week for The...
- The Democrats' latest message: Vote for us and we...
- This is about turnout not polls!
- The World Series: Tigers in 6
- Fidel and the Internet
- Rush had the last laugh!
- Bad week for Hugo
- Has anybody seen Fidel?
- The Democrats deserve an electoral butt kick of hi...
- What if Senator Reid was a conservative Republican...
- Too much sex everywhere hurts teenagers!
- Austin Bay on Steyn's new book
- What Fidel Castro once said......
- Thomas Friedman on the uptick in violence from Ira...
- Another post on Steele's campaign
- Why do so many Democrats hate what Michael Steele ...
- Is Chavez a liability? Many voters think so!
- Life in North Korea is horrible
- What's going on in Paris now?
- Why are so many Democrats sounding like Republican...
- A great book!
- The Mexican left lost!
- What's going on in North Korea?
- A very positive and different Rev. Jackson!
- Most of us are tired of this mindless anti-America...
- George Will is my favorite baseball writer
- If you care about Mexico then read this IBD editor...
- The New York Times: All the fiction that's fit to ...
- A very real look at Iraq
- My money is on Rove
- What are the polls really saying?
- Illegal immigration lawsuits are the latest idea!
- It's time for the world to get serious with North ...
- No lettuce or spinach this Halloween
- Congratulations Detroit Tigers
- What's going on at The New York Times?
- The 2008 Dems without Mark Warner
- What if Pres. Bush had not invaded Iraq?
- We want Mexico to be prosperous and self sufficien...
- Anyone keeping up with the economy?
- An ugly "Friday the 13th" for Al Franken and Harry...
- Baseball and snow?
- Another funny Fidel video (with music!)
- The Iraq War survey is partisan nonsense!
- Who pays taxes in the US?
- We like an honest press. This is why we don't lik...
- The New York Times and Pres. Carter's article, par...
- So long Bevo (Only Texans will understand this one...
- The Hispanic vote
- The Democrats and North Korea
- Pres. Carter's horrible memory
- The NY Times: 650,000 dead in Iraq but the margin ...
- "La primavera de Cuba" newspaper
- A very funny video about North Korea
- Cartoon of the day: The North Korean hair look!
- Well done, Senator McCain!
- Poor Mexico: So close to the US and so far from re...
- Why North Korea's nukes matter?
- Some Democrats see the big picture
- The fence that Mexico wants!
- It's time to kick North Korea out of the UN or mov...
- Quote of the day: Not with my daughter!
- My money is on Barry Zito and the A's
- How many more "blows" can the Clinton legacy take?...
- A nice tribute to Bush-41
- North Korea gives the world the finger!
- Raul Castro and Hugo Chavez
- North Korea's people need food not weapons!
- What a great celebration in Detroit
- North Korea and the failure of diplomacy
- OK Raul, I believe you that Fidel is not dead (yet...
- Did money ever buy a baseball pennant?
- A couple of abortion lists!
- The Democrats finally have a message: Vote for us...
- The North Korean headcase is making noise again!
- We will miss Buck O'Neil
- Those gasoline prices
- "El Machete" speaks about Chavez
- A big "problema" called Oaxaca!
- The Democrats, young boys and The Boy Scouts!
- The Rangers made a mistake
- What about the civil war in France?
- Che met justice 39 years ago this week
- Memo to Republicans: Punch back!
- Cartoon of the day: Baseball and steroids
- The Speaker should not resign
- Is Venezuela starting to look like Cuba?
- Back home in Caracas!
- Denial "a la Europe"
- Are you ready for some cheap gas?
- Speaking of denial!
- The good economy is a fact
- Do these guys stand for anything?
- Hang Foley! Then kick Democrats for being so hyp...
- Osama and his gang are losing!
- Cartoon of the day: What is the difference betwee...
- It could be Gore?
- Trivia question: Who said this?
- Black Americans need to give the GOP a chance
- Chavez is one "hombre loco"
- Cartoon of the day: Osama reacts to Clinton on FO...
- How about a plan rather than another book?
- This blame game is getting a little silly
- Can you think of baseball without Frank Robinson?
- What are the Republicans exaggerating?
- Bet on the Yankees but my heart is with the Twins!...
- Look who is a pain in the butt again? Who else? ...
- ▼ October (142)
- ► 2005 (400)